000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102148
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis along 97W from 07N to southern 
Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. A low pressure is located near the 
tropical wave near 14N99W with a central pressure of 1008 mb. 
Some development of this system is possible during the next 
couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 
mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. By early next 
week, the system is forecast to move into a more stable 
environment, limiting additional development. Regardless of 
formation, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to 
portions of coastal southern and southwestern Mexico during the 
next day or two. This system has a low chance of development in 
48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 14N99W to 10N119W, and then
resumes from 16N126W to 12N135W. The ITCZ extends from 12N135W to
beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 17N between 80W and 119W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 131W and 
140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves discussion for more
information on the wave moving across southern Mexico. 

A ridge is noted between the W coast of Baja California and the 
remnant low of Emilia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across
the Baja California offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft within
mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds
prevail with seas to 3 ft. Meanwhile, clusters of moderate to 
isolated strong convection persists along the southern coast of 
Mexico associated with a low pressure near 14N99W, with fresh to
strong winds associated with it. Seas are near 7 ft. Outside of 
the low, gentle to moderate winds prevail across southern and 
southwest Mexico with seas 4 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to build across the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California, supporting mainly 
gentle to moderate winds through Sun, with locally fresh NW winds
near the coast S of Punta Eugenia. Then, light to gentle winds 
are forecast early next week. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will dominate 
most of the Mexican offshore waters through early next week. In 
the Gulf of California, the pressure gradient between the ridge 
to the W and lower pressure inland Mexico will support fresh to 
locally strong SE winds tonight into Sun, with seas building to 3
to 5 ft in the northern part of the Gulf on Sun. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region tonight 
and Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 5
ft. Meanwhile, gentle to locally moderate winds are occurring 
across the Central American and South American offshore waters. 
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across these waters within mostly S 
swell. Strong thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Panama and
Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days 
while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be 
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Fresh NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 25N132W at 1800 UTC 
with a central pressure of 1012 mb. An area of fresh winds is 
still noted within 300 nm of the northern semicircle of the low
center with maximum seas of 8 ft. Elsewhere, fresh southerly
winds prevail south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 115W
with seas near 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh winds will persist to the north of the 
center of the remnant low of Emilia tonight before diminishing 
Sun. The associated seas will slowly subside through Sun. Emilia
is forecast to open up into a trough by Mon. NW swell will build
into the north-central waters on Sun with building seas up to 
around 8 ft late Sun night through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are expected. 

$$
AReinhart