000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101545
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis along 97W north of 07N to SE Mexico.
A 1008 mb low is along the tropical wave near 13N. Fresh to
strong winds and seas to 7 ft are noted near the low. A cluster
of moderate to strong convection is noted south of Acapulco,
Mexico from 13N to 16N between 97W and 104W. Some development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it 
moves WNW at around 15 kt, parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast 
to move into a more stable environment, limiting additional 
development. Regardless of formation, this system could bring 
areas of heavy rain to portions of coastal southern and 
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. This system has a
low chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N88W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 14N97W to 08N117W, then
resumes from 15N129W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 96W
and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N
between 111W and 117W and from 08N to 16N between 129W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves discussion for more
information on the wave moving across southern Mexico. 

A ridge is noted between the W coast of Baja California and the 
remnant low of Emilia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across
the Baja California offshore waters with seas 4 to 5 ft within
mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally
moderate winds are noted with seas to 3 ft. Meanwhile, clusters
of moderate to isolated strong convection persists along the
southern coast of Mexico associated with a low pressure near
13N98W, with fresh to strong winds associated with it. Seas are 
near 7 ft. Outside of the low, gentle to moderate winds prevail
across southern and southwest Mexico with seas 4 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to build across the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California, supporting mainly 
gentle to moderate winds through Sun, with locally fresh NW winds
near the coast S of Punta Eugenia. Then, light to gentle winds 
are forecast early next week. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will dominate 
most of the Mexican offshore waters through early next week. In 
the Gulf of California, the pressure gradient between the ridge 
to the W and lower pressure inland Mexico will support fresh to 
locally strong SE winds tonight into Sun, with seas building to 3
to 5 ft in the northern part of the Gulf on Sun. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region tonight 
and Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds are occurring across the 
Central American and South American offshore waters. Seas are 
generally 4 to 6 ft across these waters within mostly S swell. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days 
while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be 
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Fresh NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 25N131W at 1200 UTC 
with a central pressure of 1011 mb. An area of fresh to locally 
strong winds is still noted within 210 nm NW and 120 nm NE 
quadrants of the low center with maximum seas of 9 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist to
the north of the center of the remnant low of Emilia today before
diminishing tonight into Sun. The associated seas will slowly 
subside through early Sun. Emilia is forecast to open up into a
trough by Mon. NW swell will build into the north-central waters
on Sun with building seas up to around 8 ft late Sun night through
Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
expected. 

$$
AReinhart