000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100832
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 96W north of 07N to across SE Mexico. A
broad area of low pressure is along the wave axis. A 1011 mb low
is analyzed near 12N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted
on the NE quadrant of the low center. The wave appears to enhance
convection over SE Mexico. A cluster of moderate to strong convection
is noted just south of Acapulco, Mexico extending south to about
14N100W. Some development of this system is possible during the 
next several days while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 
kt, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. By
early next week, the system is forecast to move into a more 
stable environment, limiting additional development. This system 
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 
48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N96W to 06N115W, then
resumes from 15N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 08N between 
110W and 115W, and from 07N to 12N between 133W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is noted between the W coast of Baja California and the 
remnant low of Emilia. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate
to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja California Sur,
and accompanying seas are around 6 or 7 ft. Clusters of moderate
to isolated strong convection are occurring along the W coast of 
Mexico, roughly between Mazatlan and Cabo Corrientes. In the 
Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds are noted. 
Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the 
Gulf. A band-like of fresh to locally strong winds is seen 
within about 50 nm of the coast of Oaxaca. This winds could be 
the result of the pressure gradient between the area of low 
pressure previously mentioned and a ridge over eastern Mexico.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to build across the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California, supporting mainly 
gentle to moderate winds through Sun, with locally fresh NW winds
near the coast S of Punta Eugenia. Then, light to gentle winds 
are forecast early next week. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will dominate 
most of the Mexican offshore waters through early next week. In 
the Gulf of California, the pressure gradient between the ridge 
to the W and lower pressure inland Mexico will support fresh to 
locally strong SE winds tonight into Sun, with seas building to 3
to 5 ft in the northern part of the Gulf on Sun. Fresh northerly
winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region tonight and Sun 
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of 
the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas 
are generally 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador while seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere, 
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days 
while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be 
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Fresh NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 24N130W at 0600 UTC. 
An area of fresh to strong winds is still noted within 210 nm NW
and 120 nm NE quadrants of the low center with maximum seas of 
10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist to
the north of the center of the remnant low of Emilia today before
diminishing tonight into Sun. The associated seas will slowly 
subside through early Sun. Emilia is forecast to open up into a
trough by Mon. NW swell will build into the north-central waters
on Sun with building seas up to around 8 ft late Sun night through
Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
expected. 

$$
GR