000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100257
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W north of 07N to across SE Mexico. A
1011 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 12N.
The wave appears to enhance convection over SE Mexico, including
the state of Oaxaca. Scattered moderate convection is noted
mainly ahead of the wave from 07N to 14N between 95W and 98W.
Some development of this system is possible during the next 
several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 to 15
kt, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. 
By early next week, the system is forecast to move into a more 
stable environment, limiting additional development. This 
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N95W to 07N118W, then
resumes from 14N130W to beyond 10N140W. Clusters of moderate to
isolated strong convection are noted over parts of western Panama
and southern Costa Rica, including the coastal waters. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 08N between 106W and
115W, and from 08N to 13N between 130W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is noted between the coast of Baja California and the 
remnant low of Emilia. The most recent scatterometer data 
indicate moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters of 
Baja California Sur, and accompanying seas are around 7 to 8 ft.
Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are occurring
inland over W Mexico, particularly S of Los Mochis to about 
Manzanillo. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds
prevail with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near the
entrance to the Gulf. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to build across the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting mainly 
gentle to moderate winds through Sun. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are
expected across most of the Mexican offshore waters through early
next week. In the Gulf of California, the pressure gradient 
between the ridge to the W and lower pressure inland Mexico will 
support fresh to locally strong SE winds Sat night into Sun, with
seas building to 3 to 5 ft in the northern part of the Gulf by 
Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of 
the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas 
are generally 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador while seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere,
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. As previously
mentioned, clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection 
are noted over parts of western Panama and southern Costa Rica, 
including the coastal waters.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days 
while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be 
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night and Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 24N129W at 0000 UTC. 
An area of fresh to strong winds are still noted within 210 nm 
NW and 120 nm NE quadrants of center with maximum seas of 11 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist to
the north of the center of the remnant low of Emilia through Sat
before diminishing Sat night into Sun, and seas will slowly 
subside through early Sun. NW swell will build into the north- 
central waters on Sun with building seas up to around 10 ft late 
Sun night through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are expected. 

$$
GR