000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 94W north of 07N to across SE Mexico. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
10N to 14N between 92W and 99W. Gradual development of this 
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west- 
northwestward at around 15 kt, parallel to the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N114W, then resumes
from 15N127W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is occurring from 04N to 09N between 78W and
87W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NW winds in
the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and accompanying 
seas are around 7 to 11 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is occurring off the coast of southwest Mexico.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring 
elsewhere, with the exception of the northern Gulf of California 
where seas are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally NW fresh winds and slight 
to moderate seas will continue in the offshore waters of Baja 
California Sur into Sat before subsiding. N winds will pulse to 
moderate to fresh each evening through Mon in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. In the Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong 
SE winds and building seas are expected Sat night into Sun. 
Looking ahead, a tropical wave a couple hundred miles south of 
southern Mexico could see gradual development during the next 
several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 kt, 
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to locally moderate SW
winds across the offshore waters, as well as seas of 4 to 6 ft. 
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring 
offshore of Panama and Colombia.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days
while light to gentle winds are expected to the north. Seas will
range from 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo Sat and Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 23N129W at 1800 UTC.
Recent scatterometer data show locally strong winds up to 150 NM
to the northwest of the center, and fresh winds up to 300 NM
north of the center and 150 NM east of the center. Peak seas are
near 11 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will persist to
the north of the center of the remnant low through Sat before
diminishing Sat night, and seas will slowly subside through Sat.
NW swell will build into the north-central waters on Sun with 
building seas up to around 10 ft late Sun night through Mon. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
expected. 

$$
ADAMS