000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Aug 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W north of 07N to across SE Mexico.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
10N to 16N between 90W and 98W. Gradual development of this 
system is possible during the next several days while it moves 
west-northwestward at around 15 kt, parallel to the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N114W, then resumes 
from 13N133W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is occurring from 02N to 08N east of 83W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is building across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California in the wake of the remnant low of Emilia. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are occurring in the waters off of Baja
California Sur southward through Cabo Corrientes with
accompanying seas of 7 to 11 ft. Elsewhere, winds are generally
gentle to moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except in the northern
Gulf of California where seas are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, as the remnant low of Emilia continues to move
westward, a ridge will build across the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds
through this weekend. Seas of 7 to 11 ft will continue off of 
Baja California Sur southward through Cabo Corrientes through
tonight before slowly subsiding on Sat. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 6
ft are expected. N winds will pulse to moderate to fresh each
evening through Mon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the Gulf of 
California, the pressure gradient between the ridge to the W and 
lower pressure across inland Mexico will support fresh to locally
strong SE winds Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 4 to 6
ft in the northern part of the Gulf by Sun morning. Looking
ahead, a tropical wave a couple hundred miles south of southern
Mexico could see gradual development during the next several 
days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 kt, parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of 
the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas 
are generally 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters. Numerous 
moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring from 02N to 
08N east of 83W.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days
while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Sat and Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 23N128W at 1200 UTC. 
Fresh to strong winds are occurring within about 240 NM N and 90
NM S semicircles of center. Maximum seas are 13 ft. Seas 8 ft or
greater generated by Emilia are covering roughly the waters from
18N to 29N between 124W and 131W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an area of fresh to strong winds will persist
in the northern semicircle of Emilia likely through Sat due to
the pressure gradient between the remnant low and a ridge to the
N of it. The associated seas will gradually subside as Emilia  
continues to weaken. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are expected. 

$$
ADAMS