000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W north of 07N to across SE Mexico. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted mainly
ahead of the wave axis from 11N to 15N between 92W and 96W. 
Gradual development of this system will be possible during the 
next several days while it moves west- northwestward at around 15
mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system 
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 
48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 10N100W to 09N117W, 
then resumes from 15N130W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 08N E of
80W to the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 15N between 92W and
96W, and from 08N to 11N between 131W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is building across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California in the wake of the remnant low of Emilia. Recent
scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate NW winds within
about 120 nm of the W coast of Baja California while light and 
variable winds dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast 
waters. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft N of Punta
Eugenia due to swell generated by Emilia. Gentle to moderate NW 
winds prevail in the central and southern parts of the Gulf of 
California. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds are seen 
in the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf 
of California, except 6 to 8 ft near the entrance of the Gulf 
based on an altimeter pass. 

For the forecast, as the remnant low of Emilia continues to move
westward, a ridge will build across the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds
through the upcoming weekend. Seas will continue to subside
across the waters N of Punta Eugenia. By late Fri, seas of 4 to 
6 ft are expected across most of the Mexican offshore waters. In
the Gulf of California, the pressure gradient between the ridge
to the W and lower pressure inland Mexico will support fresh to
locally strong SE winds Sat night into Sun, with seas building 
to 4 to 6 ft in the northern part of the Gulf by Sun morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of 
the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas 
are generally 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the entrance
to the Gulf of Panama, between the coast of Colombia and 80W. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days
while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Sat and Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Emilia is analyzed near 22.5N126W at 0600 UTC.
A recent scatterometer pass provide observations of fresh to 
strong winds within about 240 nm NW and 150 nm SE semicircles of 
center. Maximum seas are 14 ft. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by
Emilia are covering roughly the waters N of 18N between 118W and
130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, an area of fresh to strong winds will persist
in the northern semicircle of Emilia likely through Sat due to
the pressure gradient between the remnant low and a ridge to the
N of it. The associated seas will gradually subside as Emilia  
continues to weaken. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are expected. 

$$
GR