000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090353
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Aug 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As 09/0300 UTC, Emilia becomes a remnant low, and the last
advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this 
system. At this time, Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia is centered 
near 22.3N 125.3W moving west-northwest at 10 kt. This general 
motion, with a decrease in forward speed and a westward turn is 
expected over the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Additional weakening is forecast, and the post- 
tropical remnant low is expected to dissipate by the end of this 
weekend. Maximum seas generated by Emilia are 16 ft.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Emilia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91W north of 07N to across Guatemala and
SE Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side
of the wave axis. Gradual development of this system will be 
possible during the next several days while it moves west-
northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. Currently, this system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 10N95W to 09N107W, 
then resumes from 13N129W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 83W and 111W and
within about 90 nm S of the monsoon trough between 130W and 
135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
occurring along the Mexican coast between 98W and 102W, including
the Acapulco area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is building across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California in the wake of the remnant low of Emilia. Currently
gentle to moderate winds are noted across the region, with 
moderate to fresh NW winds in the vicinity of Los Cabos and near 
Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 9 ft N
of Cabo San Lazaro due to swell generated by Emilia. Gentle to
moderate NW winds prevail in the central and southern parts of
the Gulf of California while light to gentle southerly winds are
seen in the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the
Gulf of California, except 4 to 6 ft near the entrance.

For the forecast, as the remnant low of Emilia continues to move
westward, a ridge will build across the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds
through the upcoming weekend. Seas will continue to subside
across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. By late Fri, seas of 4 to 6
ft are expected across most of the offshore Mexican waters. In
the Gulf of California, the pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressure inland Mexico will support moderate to fresh
SE winds Sat night and Sun, with seas building to 4 to 6 ft in
the northern part of the Gulf by Sun morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of 
the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas 
are generally 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring along most 
of the coast of Colombia. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough during the next several days
while light to gentle winds are expected N of it. Seas will be
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by 
Emilia are covering an area bounded by a line 30N122W to 24N128W
to 18N124W to 24N118W to 29N116W to 30N122W. The remnant low of
Emilia will move to 22.9N 127.0W Fri morning, 23.5N 129.0W Fri 
evening, 24.1N 131.0W Sat morning, 24.6N 132.7W Sat evening, 
24.8N 134.5W Sun morning, and 24.7N 136.6W Sun evening. Emilia 
will dissipate late Mon.

For the forecast, an area of fresh to strong winds will persist
in the northern semicircle of Emilia likely through Sat due to
the pressure gradient between the remnant low and a ridge to the
N of it. The associated seas will gradually subside as the 
system continues to weaken. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas are expected. 

$$
GR