000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 21.6N 123.8W at 08/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 16 ft. Isolated moderate convection is occurring within 100 NM of the center. Emilia will move toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. Weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to become a remnant low by Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 84W north of 07N to across western Panama and Nicaragua into the Caribbean Sea, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 09N107W, then resumes from 13N130W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 92W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 15N between 124W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia. Aside from impacts from Tropical Storm Emilia, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are along the SW and southern coast of Mexico with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are elsewhere. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring offshore of southwest Mexico. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, except 4 to 6 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, Emilia will weaken to a remnant low near 22.2N 125.7W Fri morning and continue to move away from the Mexican Offshore waters, and the associated very large seas will subside by late tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail offshore from near Cabo San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes and SW Mexico through tonight with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Similar winds will occur near Baja California Sur Fri night. N winds will pulse to moderate to fresh Fri night and again Sun night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh SE winds will occur off the coast of southwest Mexico on Sat and surge up the Gulf of California Sat night through Sun. Looking ahead, a tropical wave over the far eastern portion of the eastern Pacific could see gradual development over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a low chance of development in the next seven days. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with little change in seas into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring in the offshore waters of Panama through Honduras. For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SW monsoonal winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through tonight. Moderate E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, then again Sat afternoon and night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will persist through early next week with little change in seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia. Winds are moderate or weaker away from Emilia with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Emilia will weaken to a remnant low near 22.2N 125.7W Fri morning, move to 22.9N 127.7W Fri afternoon, 23.5N 129.6W Sat morning, 24.0N 131.4W Sat afternoon, 24.4N 133.4W Sun morning, and 24.5N 135.2W Sun afternoon. Emilia will change little in intensity as it moves to 24.0N 138.5W Mon afternoon. Weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to become a remnant low by Friday. Elsewhere, little change is expected for the winds and seas into early next week. Looking ahead, large NW swell builds into the north-central waters on Sun with building seas up to around 10 ft late Sun night through Mon. $$ ADAMS