000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 20.5N 119.9W at 08/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 23 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm in the NW semicircle and 120 nm in the SE semicircle. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest and this motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the next several days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Emilia is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by the end of this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N93W to 12N105W, then resumes from 14N129W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 80W and 89W, from 06N to 10N between 90W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 105W and 113W, and from 08N to 12N between 127W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia. Moderate to locally fresh winds are along the SW and southern coast of Mexico with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft away from the influence of Emilia and 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, except to 6 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, Emilia will move to 21.5N 122.4W Thu morning and continue thereafter away from the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will persist offshore SW Mexico to near Cabo Corrientes through Thu night building seas to 7 to 10 ft there. Similar winds will be near Baja California Sur Fri night. N winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at times in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh SE winds will surge up the Gulf of California Sat night through Sun. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with little change in seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo downwind to near 09N91W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore Panama northwestward to Guatemala. For the forecast, moderate to fresh monsoonal winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, then again Sat afternoon and night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will persist through early next week with little change in seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia. The remnant low of Carlotta is near 19.5N134W 1010 mb. Nearby winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker away from Emilia with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Emilia will move to 21.5N 122.4W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, 23.1N 127.1W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low near 23.7N 129.2W Fri evening, 24.4N 131.2W Sat morning, and 25.0N 133.0W Sat evening. Emilia will change little in intensity as it moves to 25.5N 136.5W late Sun. The remnant low of Carlotta will finally dissipate Thu. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the N central waters starting Sat night with building seas to around 10 ft late Sun night through Mon. $$ Lewitsky