000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070257 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 15.7N 115.5W at 07/0300 UTC, moving north at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 210 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 480 nm in the SW semicircle and 150 nm NE semicircle. Emilia is moving toward the north and a turn to the northwest is expected by Wed morning, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Thu. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night. Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 20.0N 115.4W at 07/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 19 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 360 nm in the E semicircle and 60 nm in the W semicircle. Fabio is moving toward the northwest and a motion toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west later on Wed. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio merges with Emilia. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia and Fabian NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N90W to 10N100W, then resumes to 14N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 90W and 100W, from 07N to 14N between 102W and 106W, and from 10N to 14N between 130W and 135W. Similar convection is noted within 240 nm of the coast between 80W and 90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio which are impacting the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong southerly winds are in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere including away from Emilia and Fabio, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, 5 to 6 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, Emilia will move to 17.4N 116.5W Wed morning, 19.3N 118.7W Wed evening, 20.5N 121.5W Thu morning, 21.4N 123.8W Thu evening, 22.1N 126.3W Fri morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 22.7N 128.5W Fri evening. Emilia will become a remnant low as it moves to 23.7N 132.6W late Sat. Fabio will move to 20.6N 117.9W Wed morning, 20.9N 120.3W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE to S winds in the Gulf of California will diminish by early Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish around sunrise Wed. WNW winds will freshen nearshore along SW and S Mexico and near Cabo San Lucas Wed night through Thu night building seas to around 8 ft there. These winds will persist near Cabo San Lucas through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the remainder of the waters, with little change in seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore of western Panama northwestward to offshore El Salvador. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through Wed morning, then freshen Wed through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed, locally strong this evening. Elsewhere, moderate to weaker winds will persist throughout the week and into the weekend with little change in seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio. The remnant low of Carlotta is near 20.5N131W at 1010 mb. Fresh winds on the NW side of the low and remnant swell are supporting seas of 8 to 10 ft. The remnant low of Daniel is near 18N126W at 1011 mb. Mainly gentle winds are with this decaying low with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, winds of moderate or weaker prevail across the open waters along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Emilia will move to 17.4N 116.5W Wed morning, 19.3N 118.7W Wed evening, 20.5N 121.5W Thu morning, 21.4N 123.8W Thu evening, 22.1N 126.3W Fri morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 22.7N 128.5W Fri evening. Emilia will become a remnant low as it moves to 23.7N 132.6W late Sat. Fabio will move to 20.6N 117.9W Wed morning, 20.9N 120.3W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the N central waters starting Sat night with building seas to around 10 ft late Sun night. $$ Lewitsky