977 AXPZ20 KNHC 062120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 14.4N 115.3W at 06/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 112W and 120W. Emilia is forecast to accelerate northwestward during the next day or two. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening later this week. Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 19.2N 113.9W at 06/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 16 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 109W to 114W. Fabio is forecast to turn to the west during the next day or so. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio merges with Emilia. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia and Fabian NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on all three systems. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N100W, then resumes from 14N131W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring north of 06N and east of 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio. Away from Fabio, winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican Offshore waters with seas of 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Isolated moderate convection is occurring across southern portions of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Emilia will move to 15.5N 116.0W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.6N 117.5W Wed afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.5N 119.8W Thu morning and continue to move westward and away from the Mexican Offshore waters on Thu. Fabio will move to 20.2N 116.4W Wed morning, 21.0N 119.6W Wed afternoon, 20.9N 122.1W Thu morning, and merge with Emilia on Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SE winds will occur inside the Gulf of California, locally strong tonight. WNW winds will freshen nearshore along SW and S Mexico Wed night through Thu night. Moderate winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, locally strong tonight. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the remainder of the waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, with gentle to moderate S winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Isolated moderate convection is occurring in the offshore waters of Nicaragua through Panama. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through Wed morning, then freshen Wed through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to weaker winds will persist throughout the week and into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio. The remnant low of Carlotta is a 1010 mb low at 21N130W. Winds are fresh to strong within 60 NM in its N hemisphere with peak seas to 12 ft. Elsewhere, winds of moderate or weaker prevail across the open waters along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Emilia will move to 15.5N 116.0W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.6N 117.5W Wed afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.5N 119.8W Thu morning, 20.9N 122.8W Thu afternoon, 21.6N 125.3W Fri morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 22.2N 127.8W Fri afternoon. Emilia will become a remnant low as it moves to 23.1N 132.2W Sat afternoon. Tropical Storm Fabio will move to 20.2N 116.4W Wed morning, 21.0N 119.6W Wed afternoon, 20.9N 122.1W Thu morning, and merge with Emilia on Thu. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the N central waters starting Sun with building seas to around 9 ft. $$ ADAMS