000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 14.0N 115.2W at 06/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-17N between 113W-121W. Emilia is forecast to accelerate northwestward during the next day or two. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening later this week. Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 17.7N 112.0W at 06/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 14 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 16N-20N between 109W-113W. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected to continue through Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours until Fabio merges with Tropical Storm Emilia on Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia and Fabian NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on all three systems. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 10N99W, then resumes from 14N131W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 05N east of 90W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 06N-13N between 98W-103W and from 09N-11N west of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio. Aside from the above, winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft, except 1-3 ft on the Gulf of California. Scattered thunderstorm activity is occurring over the S Gulf of California with the potential for locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Emilia is near 14.0N 115.2W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Emilia will move to 14.7N 115.7W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.7N 117.1W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 18.7N 119.2W Wed evening, and then well west of the Mexican Offshore zones by Thu. Tropical Storm Fabio is near 17.7N 112.0W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west- northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Fabio will move to 18.7N 114.3W this evening, 19.3N 117.4W Wed morning, 19.7N 120.5W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SE winds will prevail inside the Gulf of California through tonight, locally strong tonight. WNW winds will freshen nearshore along SW and S Mexico Wed night through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, locally strong tonight. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the remainder of the waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 06N-13N between 98W-103W. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through Wed morning, then freshen Wed through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Elsewhere, moderate to weaker winds will persist throughout the week and into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio. The remnant low of Carlotta is a 1010 mb low at 21N130W. Winds are strong to near gale within 60 NM in its N hemisphere with peak seas to 13 ft. Elsewhere, winds of moderate or weaker prevail across the open waters along with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Emilia will move to 14.7N 115.7W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.7N 117.1W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 18.7N 119.2W Wed evening, 20.3N 121.8W Thu morning, 21.2N 124.4W Thu evening, and 22.0N 126.9W Fri morning. Emilia will weaken to a tropical depression near 22.9N 131.3W early Sat. Tropical Storm Fabio will move to 18.7N 114.3W this evening, 19.3N 117.4W Wed morning, 19.7N 120.5W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the N central waters starting Sun with building seas to around 9 ft. $$ Landsea