000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060252 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 13.8N 114.3W at 06/0300 UTC, moving west-southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 17 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm in the SW semicircle. Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 16.3N 109.8W at 06/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the NE semicircle, and within 300 nm in the SW semicircle. Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta is centered near 20.6N 128.5W at 06/0300 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 14 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 30 nm and 120 nm in the NW quadrant. Remnants of Daniel is centered near 16.7N 126.0W at 06/0300 UTC, moving northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are around 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm in the NE quadrant. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on all four systems. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N99W, then resumes SW of Carlotta and Daniel near 13N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 86W, and from 10.5N to 14N between 95W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 88W and 96W, and from 10N to 13N between 131W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio. Aside from the above, winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft on the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Emilia will move to 14.0N 114.5W Tue morning, 15.5N 115.4W Tue evening, 17.5N 117.1W Wed morning, 19.2N 119.4W Wed evening, 20.2N 122.1W Thu morning, and 21.0N 124.4W Thu evening. Emilia will weaken to a tropical depression over 22.4N 129.0W late Fri. Fabio will move to 17.3N 112.3W Tue morning, 17.9N 115.4W Tue evening, 18.4N 117.9W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail inside the Gulf of California tonight through Tue night. W-NW winds will freshen nearshore along SW and southern Mexico Wed night through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the remainder of the waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except moderate in the Gulf of Papagayo, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through Wed morning, then freshen Wed through Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night, locally strong Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate to weaker winds will persist throughout the week. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft across the waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia, Tropical Storm Fabio, Post-Tropical Carlotta, and the Remnants of Daniel. Elsewhere, winds of moderate or weaker prevail across the open waters, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Carlotta will become a remnant low and move to 20.6N 129.5W Tue morning, 20.2N 130.8W Tue evening, 19.6N 132.2W Wed morning, 19.1N 133.6W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Daniel will dissipate Tue morning. Emilia will move to 14.0N 114.5W Tue morning, 15.5N 115.4W Tue evening, 17.5N 117.1W Wed morning, 19.2N 119.4W Wed evening, 20.2N 122.1W Thu morning, and 21.0N 124.4W Thu evening. Emilia will weaken to a tropical depression over 22.4N 129.0W late Fri. Fabio will move to 17.3N 112.3W Tue morning, 17.9N 115.4W Tue evening, 18.4N 117.9W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. $$ Lewitsky