000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052112 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 20.6N 127.8W at 05/2100 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 15 ft. Isolated moderate convection is limited to within 200 NM from the center in the N semicircle. Carlotta is expected to turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday. Carlotta is expected to weaken and become a post- tropical low at any time, and is forecast to dissipate near the middle of this week. Tropical Depression Daniel is centered near 16.2N 126.9W at 05/2100 UTC, moving northeast at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-16N between 126W-129W. Daniel's motion to the northeast is expected to continue today. Daniel is forecast to turn toward the northwest by tomorrow. Daniel is forecast to weaken further and become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 13.6N 114.0W at 05/2100 UTC, moving south at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are around 16 ft. An 1830 UTC Jason-3 altimeter pass measured 8-9 ft in the W periphery of the tropical storm near 15N117W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed from 11N-16N between 112W-117W. Emilia's motion toward the south is expected to continue through this evening. A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at a faster forward speed on Wednesday. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 15.6N 108.1W at 05/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 13 ft. A 1730 UTC Sentinel 6-A altimeter pass measured 8-10 ft seas in the SE periphery of Fabio near 16N104W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-16N between 104W-110W. A motion toward the northwest is expected to continue with a faster forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west on Wednesday. Some strengthening is expected this afternoon and tonight. After that, Fabio is expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W along the coast of Costa Rica to 10N100W. It resumes 13N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 130W-138W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted east of 80W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio. Aside from the above, winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft, except 2-4 ft on the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Fabio will move NW and then W-NW tonight through Tue, and pass just S of the Revillagigedo Islands, and then exit the offshore waters to the W Tue night before interacting and becoming absorbed within the circulation of Emilia. Emilia will continue to drift S tonight, then turn toward the NW and then N-NW Tue through Wed, as Emilia interacts and then gradually absorbs Fabio. Emilia will reach near 14.3N114.3W Tue afternoon, near 18.7N117.8W Wed afternoon, then exit the offshore waters to the W Wed night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail inside the Gulf of California tonight through Tue night. W-NW winds will freshen nearshore along SW and southern Mexico Wed night through Thu night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail poleward of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-6 ft in S to SW swell. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted east of 80W. For the forecast, moderate monsoonal winds will continue S of 10N through Wed morning, then freshen Wed through Fri. Elsewhere moderate to weaker winds will persist throughout the week, with gap winds pulsing to fresh at night across the Papagayo region through Wed night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta, Tropical Depression Daniel, Tropical Storm Emilia, and Tropical Storm Fabio. Otherwise, ridging between California and Hawaii is helping to force moderate to fresh NE trades poleward of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Equatorward of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft outside of the four tropical cyclones' circulation. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta will weaken to a tropical depression near 20.7N 128.9W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.4N 130.2W Tue afternoon, 19.9N 131.6W Wed morning, 19.3N 132.9W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Tropical Depression Daniel will move to 17.3N 125.9W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 18.4N 126.2W Tue afternoon, 19.4N 127.6W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm Emilia will move to 13.3N 114.1W Tue morning, 14.3N 114.3W Tue afternoon, 16.5N 115.5W Wed morning, 18.7N 117.8W Wed afternoon, 19.8N 120.6W Thu morning, and 20.6N 123.1W Thu afternoon. Emilia will weaken to a tropical depression over 22.0N 127.5W Fri afternoon. Tropical Storm Fabio will move to 16.9N 110.6W Tue morning, 17.9N 113.9W Tue afternoon, 18.2N 116.8W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. Conditions may finally start to improve basinwide by Fri or Sat. $$ Landsea