000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 20.4N 127.2W at 05/1500 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 NM of the center in the N semicircle. A general motion toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected today. A west-southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday until Carlotta dissipates. Weakening is expected. Carlotta could become a post-tropical low at any time and is forecast to dissipate near the middle of this week. Tropical Storm Daniel is centered near 15.6N 127.7W at 05/1500 UTC, moving northeast at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-17N between 124W-129W. Daniel is forecast to turn toward the north tonight and tomorrow, and then continue turning toward the west by mid-week. Weakening is expected. Daniel will likely become a post-tropical remnant low by mid-week. Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 14.5N 114.1W at 05/1500 UTC, moving south-southwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are around 16 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-16N and between 114W-118W. A motion to the south-southwest is expected to continue through today. A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Fabio is centered near 14.8N 106.9W at 05/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 11N-17N between 105W-110W. A motion toward the northwest is expected to continue with a faster forward speed today. A turn toward the west is expected on Tuesday, with this motion continuing through Wednesday. Some strengthening is expected today. After that, Fabio is expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday night or Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W along the coast of Costa Rica to 14N104W. It resumes 13N131W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-15N west of 127W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted north of 05N and east of 81W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio. Aside from the above, winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from Tropical Storm Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio, winds will pulse to moderate or fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid- week, locally strong Tue night. Winds will freshen offshore SW and southern Mexico Wed night through Thu night. Expect moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail poleward of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds equatorward of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted north of 05N and east of 81W. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the waters through the next several days, freshening south of the monsoon trough along about 10N by mid-week. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta, Tropical Storm Daniel, Tropical Storm Emilia, and Tropical Storm Fabio. Otherwise, ridging between California and Hawaii is helping to force moderate to fresh NE trades poleward of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Equatorward of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft away the four tropical storms. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta will move to 20.5N 128.3W this evening, weaken to a remnant low near 20.3N 129.6W Tue morning, 19.8N 131.0W Tue evening, 19.3N 132.3W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Tropical Storm Daniel will move to 16.6N 126.3W this evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.0N 125.7W Tue morning, 18.9N 126.5W Tue evening, become a remnant low and move to 19.3N 128.0W Wed morning, 19.0N 129.8W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Tropical Storm Emilia will move to 13.9N 114.2W this evening, 14.4N 114.8W Tue morning, 15.9N 115.4W Tue evening, 18.2N 117.1W Wed morning, 19.6N 119.7W Wed evening, and 20.8N 122.6W Thu morning. Emilia will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 127.5W early Fri. Tropical Storm Fabio will move to 16.3N 109.0W this evening, 17.6N 112.2W Tue morning, 18.2N 115.5W Tue evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.0N 118.0W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. Conditions may finally start to improve basinwide by this weekend. $$ Landsea