986 AXPZ20 KNHC 050301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 20.1N 125.7W at 05/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 20 ft. Isolated moderate convection is noted between 45 nm and 90 nm in the NE quadrant and within 60 nm in the SE quadrant. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Further weakening is forecast and Carlotta is expected to become a remnant low on Tues, and dissipate by the end of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Daniel is centered near 14.2N 129.9W at 05/0300 UTC, moving northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 14 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the NE and SW quadrants, and within 75 nm in the SE and NW quadrants. Daniel is moving toward the northeast and this motion is forecast to continue through Mon, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Mon night and Tue. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Daniel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 15.0N 113.2W at 05/0300 UTC, moving south-southwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 11 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the SE semicircle and within 150 nm in the NW semicircle. Emilia is moving toward the south-southwest and this motion is expected to continue through Mon. A sharp turn towards the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tue. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. The cyclone will then begin to interact with a large disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate or merge with the large disturbance in a few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Emilia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning for South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96): Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles south of southwestern Mexico near 14N105.5W at 1006 mb. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 17N between 100W and 110W. Associated winds are currently 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Mon while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and 7 days. A Gale Warning remains in effect for this system prior to tropical cyclone formation. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website www.hurricanes.gov for the latest details on EP96. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N102W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Daniel near 12N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 79W and 93W, from 11N to 14N between 110W and 122W, and from 08N to 10N between 135W and 140W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm of the coast between 79W and 88W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Emilia, and on possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. Aside from the above, winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, aside from Tropical Storm Emilia and EP96, Winds will pulse to moderate or fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid-week, locally strong Tue night. Winds will freshen offshore SW and southern Mexico Wed night through Thu night, building seas. Expect moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft offshore Ecuador. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Panama, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the waters through the next several days, freshening south of the monsoon trough along about 10N by mid-week. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta, Tropical Storm Daniel, Tropical Depression Five-E, and possible tropical cyclone development with EP96 which has a Gale Warning in effect.. Otherwise, ridging well north of the area is helping to force moderate to fresh NE trades north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft away from any tropical cyclone or gale activity. For the forecast, Carlotta will move to 20.3N 126.9W Mon morning, 20.5N 128.5W Mon evening, weaken to a remnant low near 20.5N 129.9W Tue morning, 20.2N 131.3W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Daniel will move to 15.1N 128.7W Mon morning, 16.6N 127.4W Mon evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.0N 127.0W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 19.1N 128.1W Tue evening, 19.9N 130.3W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Emilia will move to 14.2N 113.4W Mon morning, 13.8N 113.5W Mon evening, 14.3N 113.8W Tue morning, 15.6N 114.8W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. Conditions may finally start to improve by the end of the week into next weekend. $$ Lewitsky