559 AXPZ20 KNHC 042134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 19.9N 125.0W at 04/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 23 ft. Isolated moderate convection is noted within the SW semicircle within 90 NM of the center. A general motion toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Weakening is anticipated and Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low in a day or two. The subsequent remnant low is expected to dissipate around mid- week. Tropical Storm Daniel is centered near 13.4N 129.9W at 04/2100 UTC, moving northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 11N-15N between 129W-133W. Its motion toward the northeast is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical Depression Five-E is centered near 15.5N 113.2W at 04/2100 UTC, moving south at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 12N-17N between 109W-121W. A slow generally southward motion is expected to continue into Monday. A sharp turn back toward the north or northwest is possible by Tuesday. Slow strengthening is expected and the depression forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. The cyclone will then begin to interact with a large disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate or merge with the large disturbance in a few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECASTS issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta, Daniel, and Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning for South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96): Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization in association with a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 13N104W, a few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Peak winds are near 25 kt and near 9 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-17N between 104W-108W. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form as soon as this afternoon while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. The system has a high - 80 percent - chance of forming into a tropical depression through 48 hours and a high - 90 percent chance of forming through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website www.hurricanes.gov for the latest details on EP96. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to low pressure, EP96, near 13N104W, then resumes southwest of Daniel near 11N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N between 80W-90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. Aside from Invest EP96, a weak pressure gradient is forcing only gentle to moderate winds across the Mexican Offshore zones. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California waters. For the forecast, the broad area of low pres, Invest EP96, located a few hundred NM south of southwestern Mexico near 13.5N104W, has a high potential for tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, gale force winds are forecast by Mon afternoon across the outer waters and a gale warning is now in effect. Expect fresh to strong offshore SW Mexico to Cabo Corrientes tonight through Mon night as EP96 moves across the area. Also, Tropical Depression Five-E is near 15.5N113.2W at 2100 UTC. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. TD Five-E is expected to drift south and eastward for the next couple of days and intensify into a tropical storm, then begin to interact with the much larger circulation of EP96, to its southeast, on Tue, which should limit further development. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge will persist across the Baja waters into the early part of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N between 80W-90W south of Panama. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the waters through the next several days, freshening south of the monsoon trough along about 10N by mid-week. Seas will build slightly to 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell today through mid-week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta, Tropical Storm Daniel, Tropical Depression Five-E, and possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. Otherwise, ridging well north of the area is helping to force moderate to fresh NE trades north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta will move to 20.1N 126.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 128.0W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 20.6N 129.6W Tue morning, 20.4N 131.0W Tue afternoon, 20.2N 132.0W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm Daniel will move to 14.4N 128.6W Mon morning, 15.8N 127.0W Mon afternoon, 17.0N 126.0W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.4N 126.4W Tue afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 19.3N 127.8W Wed morning, and 19.9N 130.1W Wed afternoon. Daniel will dissipate Thu afternoon. Tropical Depression Five-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.8N 113.3W Mon morning, move to 13.9N 113.7W Mon afternoon, 13.7N 113.4W Tue morning, 15.2N 114.0W Tue afternoon, and dissipate Wed morning. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. $$ Landsea