000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 19.9N 124.0W at 04/1500 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 26 ft. Scattered moderate convection is located within 120 NM in the west semicircle. Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please consult products from your local weather office. A motion toward the west at 10 kt is expected for the next day or two. Carlotta's forward motion is forecast to slow down gradually as it becomes a remnant low in a couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Daniel is centered near 13.2N 130.4W at 04/1500 UTC, moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N-15N between 128W-133W. A faster northeastward motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Daniel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Five-E (previously EP97) is centered near 15.8N 112.9W at 04/1500 UTC, moving north at 0 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 8 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N-17N between 112W-116W. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow generally southward motion is expected to begin later today and continue into Monday. A sharp turn back toward the north is possible by Tuesday. Slow strengthening is expected today and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. The cyclone will then begin to interact with another larger disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate in a few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning for South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96): Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a broad 1007 mb low pressure located near 13N103W, a few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Peak winds associated with it are about 25 kt and peak seas are 9 ft. Numerous moderate and scatted strong convection is occurring from 08N-17N between 101W-107W. Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. The system has a high - 70 percent - chance of forming into a tropical depression through 48 hours and a high - 90 percent chance of forming through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website www.hurricanes.gov for the latest details on EP96. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to low pressure, EP96, near 13N103W to low pressure, Tropical Depression Five-E near 16N113W, then resumes southwest of Daniel near 12N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N east of 87W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 08N-17N between 101W-107W in association with Invest EP96. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N-17N between 112W-116W in association with Tropical Depression Five-E. Scattered moderate and isolated strong conveciton is noted from 08N-11N west of 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Five-E and possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. Aside from Tropical Depression Five-E and Invest 96E, a weak pressure gradient is forcing only gentle to moderate winds across the Mexican Offshore zones. Seas are 4-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California waters. For the forecast, a broad area of low pres, Invest EP96, located a few hundred NM south of southwestern Mexico near 12.5N103W has a high potential for tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, gale force winds are forecast by early Tue morning and a gale warning is now in effect. Also, another area of low pressure, Invest EP97, near 16N113W has a medium potential for tropical cyclone development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the system meanders within weak steering currents. Thereafter, the system is forecast to interact with the disturbance, EP96, to its southeast, which should limit further development. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge will persist across the Baja waters into the early part of the week. N to NE winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and night through Mon. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere, except briefly moderate to fresh offshore SW Mexico to near Cabo San Lucas Wed night through Thu night due to a locally tight pressure gradient. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the waters through the next several days, possibly freshening south of the monsoon trough by mid-week. Seas will build slightly to 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell today through mid-week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta, Tropical Storm Daniel, Tropical Depression Five-E, and possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. Otherwise, ridging well north of the area is helping to force moderate to fresh NE trades north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail. Seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta is near 19.9N 124.0W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Carlotta will move to 20.3N 125.4W this evening, 20.7N 127.1W Mon morning, 21.1N 128.8W Mon evening, weaken to a remnant low near 21.3N 130.3W Tue morning, 21.3N 131.7W Tue evening, and 21.2N 133.1W Wed morning. Carlotta will dissipate early Thu. Tropical Storm Daniel is near 13.2N 130.4W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Daniel will move to 13.9N 129.4W this evening, 15.3N 127.8W Mon morning, 16.8N 126.4W Mon evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 17.8N 126.2W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 18.7N 126.7W Tue evening, and 18.9N 127.9W Wed morning. Daniel will dissipate early Thu. Tropical Depression Five-E is near 15.8N 112.9W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving north at 0 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Five-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.4N 113.0W this evening, move to 14.5N 113.4W Mon morning, 13.8N 113.4W Mon evening, 14.1N 112.8W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. Elsewhere, little change expected for the winds and seas. $$ Landsea