000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040851 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 19.9N 123.0W at 04/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 26 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. Carlotta is moving toward the west- northwest and this general motion is expected to continue through Mon, with a gradual turn toward the west on Mon night and Tue. Continued weakening is expected over the next few days, and Carlotta is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tue. Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Daniel is centered near 12.5N 130.6W at 04/0900 UTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 12 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the NE quadrant and 540 nm in the SW quadrant. Similar convection is within 90 nm of the SE and NW quadrants. Daniel is moving very slowly toward the north and a faster northeastward motion is forecast later today and Mon, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Mon night and Tue. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Daniel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning for South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles south of southwestern Mexico near 12.5N103W at 1008 mb continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the SW semicircle. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25 kt per a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Winds are forecast to increase to 30 to 35 kt by 48 hours and a Gale Warning has been issued for such. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and 7 days. Well South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97): Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 16N113W at 1008 mb is gradually becoming better defined. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection has recently developed within 360 nm in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm in the W quadrant. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25 kt with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Although its shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the system meanders within weak steering currents. Thereafter, the system is forecast to interact with the disturbance (EP96) to its southeast, which should limit further development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website www.hurricanes.gov for the latest details on EP96 and EP97. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pressure, EP96, near 12.5N103W to low pressure, EP97, near 16N113W, then resumes SW of Daniel near 11N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 86W and 93W, and from 06N to 14N between 107W and 112W. Similar convection is noted within 90 nm of the coast of Central American and Mexico between 86W and 96W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on possible tropical cyclone development with EP96 and EP97. Broad ridging prevails elsewhere to the east of Hurricane Carlotta, now well WNW of the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds are moderate or weaker away from EP96, except moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the open waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than EP96 and EP97, a broad and weak ridge will persist across the Baja waters into the early part of the week. N to NE winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and night through Mon. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere, except briefly moderate to fresh offshore SW Mexico to near Cabo San Lucas Wed night through Thu night due to a locally tight pressure gradient. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands and 3 to 5 ft north of there. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the waters through the next several days, possibly freshening south of the monsoon trough by mid-week. Seas will build slightly to 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell today through mid-week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta, Tropical Storm Daniel, and possible tropical cyclone development with EP96 and EP97. Otherwise, High pressure dominates the NW waters ahead of Carlotta and Daniel. Moderate to fresh trades are under the ridge north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, except gentle and variable in the far NW waters near the high center. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters, locally fresh within 180 to 240 nm south of the monsoon trough and west of 100W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft away from Carlotta, Daniel, EP96, and EP97, except 7 to 9 ft in the far west central waters. For the forecast, Carlotta will move to 20.2N 124.3W this afternoon, 20.7N 126.2W Mon morning, 21.2N 127.9W Mon afternoon, 21.5N 129.4W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.6N 130.8W Tue afternoon, and 21.7N 132.3W Wed morning. Carlotta will dissipate early Thu. Daniel will move to 13.3N 129.9W this afternoon, 14.4N 128.6W Mon morning, 15.8N 127.0W Mon afternoon, 16.9N 126.2W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 17.8N 126.4W Tue afternoon, and 18.7N 127.2W Wed morning. Daniel will dissipate early Thu. Other than Carlotta, Daniel, EP96, and EP97, generally little change is forecast with winds and seas over the open waters during the next several days. $$ Lewitsky