000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Carlotta is centered near 19.0N 120.9W at 2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas in Carlotta are estimate at around 30 ft. Seas of 12 ft and greater area estimated within 100 nm NE...75 nm SE...75 nm SW...and 110 nm NW quadrants. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm N and 60 nm S of the center. A continued west to west-northwest motion at just below 10 kt is expected during the next few days. Carlotta appears to have peaked in intensity, and a slow gradual weakening trend should begin by tonight, followed by a more rapid weakening starting Sun night. South to southwest swell generated by Carlotta in recent days is gradually fading along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula today, and should diminish by Sun. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 12.3N130.4W 1007 mb at 2100 UTC. Daniel is drifting toward the north at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 11 ft. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the SW semicircle. Daniel is a small and sheared tropical storm, and is expected to remain within the monsoonal flow occurring across the region south through southwest of Carlotta. Daniel is expected to begin to move NE on Sun and may strengthen slightly, then gradually become entrained within the broader large-scale circulation of Carlotta by Sun night or Mon, and begin to begin to turn northward and weaken. Daniel is likely to be a short-lived tropical storm as it follows behind Carlotta, in unfavorable atmospheric conditions. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred nautical miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a broad area of low pressure centered near 11.5N102.5W at 1010 mb. Convection within 60 nm of this broad low has diminished today. However a large area of scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within 300 nm of this system. in the W semicircle. Associated winds are currently 15 to 25 kt between 95W and 105W, with seas up to 9 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website www.hurricanes.gov for the latest details on EP96. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73.5W to 11N93W to low pressure, EP96, near 11.5N102.5W to 15N112.5W, then resumes SW of Daniel near 10.5N133W to 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between Colombia, Central America and 94W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 95W and 120W, and from 12.5N to 14N between 125W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Carlotta which continues to move away from the Revillagigedo Islands, and on possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. 1026 mb high pressure is centered offshore of the Baja California coast, and extends a broad ridge SE to offshore of Baja Sur. The associated pressure gradient is producing gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in a mixed of NW and southerly swell from Carlotta. To the south, fresh NE winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail there. Elsewhere, outside of Carlotta, winds are weak to moderate. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, to 4 ft near the entrance. Showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring between the southern Gulf of California and Cabo Corrientes this morning have ended. For the forecast, Carlotta will continue to move farther away from the Revillagigedo Islands this afternoon and evening, with a broad and weak ridge persisting across the Baja waters into early next week. Other than Carlotta and EP96, N to NE winds will pulse to fresh across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and night through Mon. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker west to northwest monsoonal winds prevail south of 10N, while winds have shifted offshore at 10 kt or less from the Papagayo region northward. Seas are 4 to 5 ft offshore Guatemala as well as offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia as described above. For the forecast, moderate or weaker monsoonal winds will continue to dominate the waters S of 10N through the next several days, while offshore winds at 15 kt or less begin to dominate the waters N of 10N. A slight increase in seas is expected Sun through Mon night as new SW swell moves into the regional waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Carlotta, Tropical Storm Daniel, and possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. High pressure dominates northern portions of the basin ahead of Carlotta and Daniel, centered on a 1026 mb high near 35N134W. Moderate to fresh trades are found north of the monsoon trough to around 26N and west of 116W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough within about 120 NM between 95W and 125W. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range in these near fresh wind areas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. For the forecast, Carlotta will continue on a west to west- northwest track at near 10 kt through Sun, and begin to weakly slightly, reaching near 20.1N 124.2W midday Sun. Carlotta is then expected to slowly weaken, reaching near 21.1N 127.8W midday Mon, then continue this weakening trend before becoming a post tropical low by midday Tue near 21.7N 130.9. Elsewhere, winds will freshen ahead of Carlotta and north of the monsoon trough through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between Carlotta and high pressure to the northwest. $$ Stripling