312 AXPZ20 KNHC 030900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Carlotta is centered near 18.9N 118.9W at 03/0900 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas in Carlotta are around 28 ft. Numerous strong and scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the center, except within 180 nm in the NE quadrant. A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Slight strengthening is possible today, but weakening should begin by tonight. Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sun. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, as described below, located a few hundred nautical miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a broad area of low pressure near 11N98W at 1011 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the NW semicircle. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25 kt with seas up to 7 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Western East Pacific (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little less organized in association with an area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 12.5N129.5W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the W quadrant. Associated winds are currently 20 to 30 kt. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated some stronger winds but they were all rain flagged. Seas are currently 7 to 9 ft. This system could still become a short- lived tropical depression before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development in a day or two. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website www.hurricanes.gov for the latest details on EP95 and EP96. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 131W from 07N to 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in the special features section above, in association with low pressure, EP95, which has decoupled from the tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pressure, EP96, near 11N98W to 15N110W, then resumes SW of Carlotta near 15N120W to low pressure, EP95, near 12.5N129.5W to 10N136W. The ITCZ extends from 10N136W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between Central America and 91W, and within 360 nm WSW of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. Similar convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 98W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Carlotta which continues to move away from the Revillagigedo Islands, and on possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. Fresh to strong NE winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as measured by an overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass, with accompanying seas of 7 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, outside of Carlotta, winds are weak to moderate. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, to 4 ft near the entrance, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moved from mainland Mexico into portions of the central and southern Gulf of California during the past few hours. For the forecast, Carlotta will continue to move away from the Revillagigedo Islands today. Other than Carlotta and EP96, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft offshore Guatemala as well as offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is across the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala as described above. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will continue to dominate the waters through the next several days with little change in seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Carlotta and possible tropical cyclone development with EP95 and EP96. High pressure dominates over northern portions of the basin ahead of Carlotta and north of EP95. Moderate to fresh trades are found north of the monsoon trough to around 21N and west of 125W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough within about 180-240 NM between 97W and 130W as shown by ASCAT. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in these near fresh wind areas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. For the forecast, Carlotta will move to 19.1N 120.5W this afternoon, 19.5N 122.6W Sun morning, 20.1N 124.4W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 126.4W Mon morning, 21.1N 128.2W Mon afternoon, and 21.4N 129.7W Tue morning. Carlotta will weaken to a remnant low over 22.1N 132.8W early Wed. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread through waters well away from the center of the storm. Elsewhere, winds will freshen ahead of Carlotta and north of the monsoon trough through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between Carlotta and high pressure to the northwest. $$ Lewitsky