905 AXPZ20 KNHC 030300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Carlotta is centered near 18.8N 117.9W at 03/0300 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas in Carlotta are around 26 ft. Numerous strong and scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 120 nm of the center. Carlotta is moving toward the west and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. By Sat night, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast. Additional strengthening is forecast within the next day, followed by steady weakening through early next week. Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are beginning to subside and should diminish by Sun. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred nautical miles to the south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described below. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas near 8 ft are with the system. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Western East Pacific (EP95): A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization since earlier today with nearby convection described below. Fresh to locally strong winds are currently with the system, along with seas up to 9 ft per a recent SOFAR observation. Despite marginal environmental conditions, a tropical depression could form over the next day or so as the low meanders. By late this weekend, environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development as the system moves northeastward. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website www.hurricanes.gov for the latest details on EP95 and EP96. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 130W from 07N to 18N, moving west around 10 kt. Low pressure, EP95, is now detached from the tropical wave near 12.5N129.5W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 129W and 136W with scattered moderate convection from 10N to 13N between 123W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pressure, EP96, near 10.5N97W to 11N109W, then resumes SSW of Carlotta near 15N118W to low pressure, EP95, near 12.5N129.5W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 82W and 90W, from 06N to 13N between 92W and 111W, and from 09N to 15N between 112W and 120W. Similar convection is noted within 75 nm of the coast between 84W and 109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Carlotta which continues to move away from the Revillagigedo Islands, and on possible tropical cyclone development with EP96. Fresh to strong NE winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with accompanying seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, outside of Carlotta, winds are weak to moderate. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Carlotta will continue to move away from the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. Other than Carlotta and EP96, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds prevail with seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except 4 to 6 ft offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is across the offshore waters from Guatemala through Panama as described above. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will continue to dominate the waters through the next several days with little change in seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Carlotta and possible tropical cyclone development with EP95 and EP96. High pressure dominates over northern portions of the basin ahead of Carlotta. Moderate to fresh trades are found north of the monsoon trough to around 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough within about 180-240 NM between 95W and 130W. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in these moderate to fresh wind areas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas in the 5 to 6 ft seas, except 3 to 5 ft north of 22N and west of 125W. For the forecast, Carlotta will move to 19.0N 119.6W Sat morning, 19.3N 121.8W Sat evening, 19.8N 123.7W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 125.6W Sun evening, 20.8N 127.5W Mon morning, and 21.2N 129.2W Mon evening. Carlotta will weaken to a remnant low over 22.0N 132.3W late Tue. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread through waters well away from the center of the storm. Elsewhere, winds will freshen ahead of Carlotta and north of the monsoon trough through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between Carlotta and high pressure to the northwest. $$ Lewitsky