000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022153 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Carlotta is centered near 18.7N 116.4W at 02/2100 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas in Carlotta are near 23 ft. Numerous strong and scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 NM of the center. A general westward to west-northwestward motion with a gradual slowdown is forecasted over the next few days. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by some weakening by early next week. Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, staying near or over the Mexican Offshore waters south of the Baja California peninsula. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has a well-defined circulation and is producing winds up to 30 kt. Despite marginal environmental conditions, any improvement in the current convective organization could result formation of a tropical depression over the next day or two as the low meanders over open waters, then begins to move northeastward by late this weekend. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 129W from 08N to 18N. Low pressure, EP95, is along the tropical wave near 12N129W at 1007 mb, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 129N to 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 12N106W. The trough continues near 14N117W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 93W and 117W, and again from 09N to 15N between 130W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Carlotta. Fresh to strong NE winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with accompanying seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, outside of Carlotta, winds are weak to moderate. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4 to 5 ft elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, Carlotta will intensify and move to 19.0N 118.2W Sat morning, moving west of the Mexican Offshore waters by Sat afternoon. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is forming a few hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, staying near or over the Mexican Offshore waters south of the Baja California peninsula. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds prevail with seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted across the offshore waters from Guatemala through Panama. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will continue to dominate the waters through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Carlotta and possible tropical cyclone development. High pressure dominates over northern portions of the basin ahead of Carlotta. Moderate to fresh trades are found north of the monsoon trough to around 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough within about 180 NM between 95W and 128W. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in these moderate to fresh wind areas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas in the 5 to 6 ft seas, except 3 to 5 ft north of 22N and west of 120W. For the forecast, Carlotta will move to 19.0N 118.2W Sat morning, 19.2N 120.4W Sat afternoon, 19.6N 122.5W Sun morning, 20.1N 124.6W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.6N 126.6W Mon morning, and 21.0N 128.4W Mon afternoon. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by some weakening by early next week. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread through waters well away from the center of the storm. Elsewhere, winds will freshen ahead of Carlotta and north of the monsoon trough through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between Carlotta and high pressure to the northwest. $$ LANDSEA/ADAMS