000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Carlotta is centered near 18.6N 115.2W at 02/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas in Carlotta are near 20 ft. Numerous strong and scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of the center, and scattered strong and isolated convection is occurring out to 300 NM of the center. Carlotta is moving toward the west- northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a continued west- northwestward motion with a gradual slowdown is anticipated over the next several days. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by some weakening by early next week. Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of west- central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 128W from 07N to 17N. Low pressure, EP95, is along the tropical wave near 13N128W at 1008 mb, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 127N-132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 11N107. The trough continues near 14N117W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-15N between 88W-125W and again from 08N-11N west of 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Carlotta. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere outside of Carlotta, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4-5 ft elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, Hurricane Carlotta is near 18.6N 115.2W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Carlotta will move to 18.9N 117.0W this evening, 19.3N 119.3W Sat morning, and 19.6N 121.5W Sat evening. Carlotta is expect to intensify some through Sat. By Sun, Carlotta will have moved well west of the Mexican Offshore waters. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of S Mexico during the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, staying near or over the Mexican Offshore waters south of the Baja California peninsula. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds prevail with seas are in the 3-5 ft range. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the Guatemala Offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will continue to dominate the waters through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Carlotta. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure dominates elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ahead of Carlotta. Moderate to fresh trades are found north of the monsoon trough to around 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough within about 180 NM between 95W and 128W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in these moderate to fresh wind areas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas in the 5-6 ft seas, except 3-5 ft north of 22N and west of 120W. For the forecast, Hurricane Carlotta is near 18.6N 115.2W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Carlotta will move to 18.9N 117.0W this evening, 19.3N 119.3W Sat morning, 19.6N 121.5W Sat evening, 19.9N 123.6W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 125.5W Sun evening, and 20.8N 127.4W Mon morning. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by some weakening by early next week. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread through waters well away from it. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. The low is forecast to meander over open waters during the next day or so, then begin moving northeastward by late this weekend. Elsewhere, winds will freshen ahead of Carlotta and north of the monsoon trough through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between Carlotta and high pressure to the northwest. $$ Landsea