000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 17.9N 112.8W at 02/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 26 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 210 nm in the east semicircle and 120 nm in the west semicircle. A turn toward the west is forecast on Fri and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or tomorrow. Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning soon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 126.5W from 07N to 18N. Low pressure, EP95, is along the tropical wave near 13N126.5W at 1008 mb, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 123W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11.5N106W, then resumes southwest of Carlotta near 14N114W to low pressure, EP95, near 13N126.5W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 77W and 112W, and from 08N to 12N between 124W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere outside of Carlotta, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in the open waters away from Carlotta, mainly in S to SW swell east of 110W and NW swell west of 110W. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range in the Gulf of California, to 4 ft near the entrance. Fresh northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sat. For the forecast, Carlotta will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.3N 114.5W Fri morning, move to 18.6N 116.7W Fri evening, 18.8N 119.0W Sat morning as it departs the region of the Revillagigedo Islands. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles to the south of Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with little change in seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds prevail along with seas in the 4-6 ft range, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Active showers and thunderstorms are from near the Gulf of Panama to offshore western Panama and Costa Rica, and well offshore north of there as described above. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range will continue to dominate the waters through the next several days. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles to the south of Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta. An area of low pressure located more than a thousand nautical miles to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as is described in the tropical waves section above. High pressure dominates elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ahead of Carlotta. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found north of the monsoon trough to around 20N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough to 04N between 90W and 130W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in these moderate to fresh wind areas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas in the 5-6 ft seas, except 3-5 ft north of 20N and west of 120W. For the forecast, Carlotta will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.3N 114.5W Fri morning, move to 18.6N 116.7W Fri evening, 18.8N 119.0W Sat morning, 19.1N 121.1W Sat evening, 19.4N 123.0W Sun morning, and 19.7N 124.8W Sun evening. Carlotta will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.2N 128.0W late Mon. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread through waters well away from it. Winds will freshen ahead of Carlotta and north of the monsoon trough through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between Carlotta and high pressure to the northwest.Meanwhile, environmental conditions appear marginal for development of EP95 during the next couple of days while it drifts slowly westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable, and further development is not expected. $$ Lewitsky