000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012141 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 17.5N 111.9W at 01/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted within 60 NM NW and SE quadrants, 90 NM N semicircle and 60 NM S semicircle, with maximum of 22 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 14N to 22N between 107W and 112W. Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west- central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 126W from 08N to 18N. Low pressure of 1008 mb is along the wave axis near 13N126W. This system is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 16N between 124W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N100W, then resumes near 13N115W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 06N to 13N and E of 111W. Similar convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 115W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta. The eastern periphery winds of Tropical Storm Carlotta outside the near-gale to tropical storm force winds, moderate to strong E to SE prevail. These winds are currently impacting the offshore waters west of about 108W while moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are over the western portion of the Guerrero offshore waters. Seas with these winds are of the moderate range. Fresh north gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas peaking to around 6 ft. These winds extend southward from the Gulf to near 15N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in south to southwest swell across the southwestern Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, southeast to south in direction and seas are in the slight range. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 113.6W Fri morning, move to 18.2N 115.7W Fri afternoon, 18.4N 117.9W Sat morning, 18.6N 120.1W Sat afternoon, 18.9N 122.1W Sun morning, and 19.2N 123.9W Sun afternoon. Carlotta will weaken to a tropical storm near 19.5N 127.0W Mon afternoon. Fresh north to northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Fri night before diminishing to moderate speeds Sat afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico during the next day or two, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, winds will remain gentle to moderate in speeds along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate east to southeast winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas peaking to around 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in south to southwest swell across the Central America offshore waters and also over the offshore waters west of Colombia and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A large complex of numerous moderate to strong convection prevails S of 11N and E of 90W. For the forecast, moderate east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to gentle speeds tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the weekend with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico this weekend and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta and the tropical wave and low pressure that is along 126W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the tropical wave near 126W continues to support moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas to 7 ft from about 10N to 20N between 120W and 140W. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere along with similar seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail between the monsoon and 20N and west of 120W through Sat. Tropical Storm Carlotta Carlotta will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 113.6W Fri morning, move to 18.2N 115.7W Fri afternoon, 18.4N 117.9W Sat morning, 18.6N 120.1W Sat afternoon, 18.9N 122.1W Sun morning, and 19.2N 123.9W Sun afternoon. Carlotta will weaken to a tropical storm near 19.5N 127.0W Mon afternoon. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread through waters well away from it. Looking ahead, the wave/low currently along 126W has marginal environmental conditions for some development during the next couple of days while it drifts slowly westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable, and further development is not expected. $$ ERA