000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 17.2N 111.0W at 01/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are noted within 60 NM NW AND SE quadrants, 90 NM NE quadrant, and 45 NM SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 14N to 22N between 107W and 112W. Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Carlotta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 125W from 08N to 18N. Low pressure of 1008 mb is along the wave axis near 13N125W. This system is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 124W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N105W, then resumes near 13N116W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 03N to 09N and E of 105W. Similar convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 116W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta. The eastern periphery winds of Tropical Storm Carlotta outside the near-gale to tropical storm force winds, moderate to strong E to SE prevail. These winds are currently impacting the offshore waters west of about 108W while moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are over the western portion of the Guerrero offshore waters. Seas with these winds are of the moderate range. Fresh north gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas peaking to around 6 ft. These winds extend southward from the Gulf to near 15N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in south to southwest swell across the southwestern Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, southeast to south in direction and seas are in the slight range. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 112.6W this evening, move to 18.2N 114.8W Fri morning, 18.3N 117.0W Fri evening, 18.4N 119.2W Sat morning, 18.6N 121.0W Sat evening, and 19.0N 122.7W Sun morning. Carlotta will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.5N 125.5W early Mon. Fresh north to northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Fri night before diminishing to moderate speeds Sat afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico during the next day or two, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, winds will remain relatively gentle to moderate in speeds along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate east to southeast winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas peaking to around 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in south to southwest swell across the Central America offshore waters and also over the offshore waters west of Colombia and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A large complex of numerous moderate to strong convection prevails west of El Salvador and south of southeastern Guatemala, or from 12N to 14N between 88W and 93W. It is moving westward. For the forecast, mostly moderate east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to gentle speeds tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico during the next day or two, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta and the tropical wave and low pressure that is along 125W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the tropical wave near 125W continues to support moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas to 7 ft from about 13N to 22N between 120W and 140W. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere along with similar seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail between the monsoon and 20N and west of 120W through Sat. Tropical Storm Carlotta will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 112.6W this evening, move to 18.2N 114.8W Fri morning, 18.3N 117.0W Fri evening, 18.4N 119.2W Sat morning, 18.6N 121.0W Sat evening, and 19.0N 122.7W Sun morning. Carlotta will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.5N 125.5W early Mon. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread through waters well away from it. Looking ahead, the wave/low currently along 125W is within environmental conditions that appear marginal for some development during the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move slowly westward over the western portion of the basin. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable, and further development is not expected. $$ ERA