000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010950 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 17.0N 109.9W at 01/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery shows a more symmetrical system in its overall structure than a few hours ago. The imagery reveals deep convection wrapping around the center of the storm. This convection is identified as the type of numerous moderate to isolated strong intensity within 90 nm of the center in the northern semicircle, 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. It is forecast to continue its current motion today, followed by a turn toward the west on Fri, and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Swells generated by Carlotta are expected to affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Three-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 125W from 07N to 18N. Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the wave axis near 14N125W. This system is moving westward near 10 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection to its west from 13N to 15N between 124W and 127W. An overnight ASCAT satellite data pass indicates fresh north to northeast winds west of the wave and low between 125W and 128W and from 13N to 18N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 11N86W to 10N92W to 11N103W. It resumes from 15N112W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 14N154W, and continues to 12N129W to low pressure of 1012 mb near 12N138W and to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen north of the trough from 11N to 15N between 93W and 103W and from 09N to 11N between 107W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 114W and 121W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 94W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 131W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta. The eastern periphery winds of Tropical Storm Carlotta outside the near gale to tropical storm force winds, range from moderate to strong intensity and east to southeast in direction. These winds are currently impacting the offshore waters of Colima west of about 106W while moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are over the western portion of the Guerrero offshore waters. Seas with these winds are of the moderate range. Fresh north gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas peaking to around 6 ft. These winds extend southward from the Gulf to near 15N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in south to southwest swell across the southwestern Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, southeast to south in direction and seas are in the slight range. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta is near 17.0N 109.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Carlotta will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.6N 111.5W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and continue to intensify as it moves to near 17.9N 113.7W late tonight, to near 18.1N 115.8W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, to near 18.2N 118.0W late Fri night, to near 18.3N 120.0W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, then begin to gradually weaken as it reaches near 18.5N 121.4W late Sat night. Carlotta is forecast to continue to weaken as it reaches near 19.0N 124.0W late Sun night and to near 19.5N 126.5W by late Mon night. Fresh north to northeast gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Fri night before diminishing to moderate speeds Sat afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico during the next couple of days, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves westward to west- northwestward while it remains well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, winds will remain relatively gentle to moderate in speeds along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate east to southeast winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas peaking to around 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in south to southwest swell across the Central America offshore waters and also over the offshore waters west of Colombia and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A large complex of numerous moderate to strong convection west of El Salvador and south of southeastern Guatemala, or from 12N to 14N between 88W and 93W. It is moving westward. For the forecast, mostly moderate east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to gentle speeds Thu night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico during the next couple of days, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward while it remains well offshore of the coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta and the tropical wave and low pressure that is along 125W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the tropical wave near 124W continues to support moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas to 6 ft from about 09N to 22N between 120W and 140W. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough between 104W and 130W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere along with similar seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail between the monsoon and 20N and west of 120W through Sat. Tropical Storm Carlotta is forecast to continue on its current motion for the next day or so followed by a turn to the west by Fri as it continues to pull farther away from the southern tip of Baja California through the weekend. Carlotta is forecast to intensify to hurricane status late today or tonight with maximum sustained winds of 65 kt gusts to 80 kt. Carlotta is forecast to intensify further near 18.3N 120.0W by Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt and seas expected to peak to around 35 kt at that time. Carlotta is then forecast to slowly weaken afterward as it continues in a general westward motion. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread through waters well away from it. Looking ahead, the wave/low currently along 125W is within environmental conditions that appear marginal for some development during the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move slowly westward over the western portion of the basin. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable, and further development is not expected. $$ Aguirre