000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 16.6N 108.9W at 01/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows greater banding features wrapping around the center from southwest. Deepening convection of numerous to strong intensity is within 30 nm of the center, except within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate convection in wide bands are from 14N to 16N between 108W and 112W, and from 16N to 18N between 109W and 113W. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane by Thu evening near 17.7N 112.5W. Swells generated by Carlotta are expected to affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Thu. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Three-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 124W from 07N to 18N. Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the wave axis near 14N124W. This system is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the low from 09N to 12N between 122W and 127W. Environmental conditions appear marginal for further development of this system over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move slowly westward over the western portion of the basin. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 11N86W to 09N95W to 12N104W. It resumes from 14N111W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 14N124W, and continues to 13N130W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 12N136W and to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 90W and 95W and from 08N to 11N between 103W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 86W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 13N between 113W and 118W, also from 10N to 12N between 127W and 129W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 129W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta. The eastern periphery winds of Tropical Storm Carlotta outside the near gale to tropical storm force winds, range from moderate to strong intensity and east to southeast in direction. These winds are currently impacting the offshore waters of Colima west of about 106W while moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are over the western portion of the Guerrero offshore waters. Seas with these winds are of the moderate range. Fresh north gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas peaking to around 6 ft. These winds extend southward from the Gulf to near 15N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in south to southwest swell across the southwestern Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate, southeast to south in direction and seas are in the slight range. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta is near 16.6N 108.9W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Tropical Storm Carlotta will move to near 17.2N 110.5W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.7N 112.5W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, and continue to gradually strengthen as it moves to near 18.0N 114.7W Fri morning, to near 18.0N 116.9W Fri evening, to near 18.0N 118.9W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 18.1N 120.8W Sat evening, to near 18.7N 122.9W Sun evening and to near 19.4N 124.8W Mon evening. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico later this week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward during the next several days and remaining offshore of the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, winds will relatively remain gentle to moderate in speeds along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate east to southeast winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas peaking to around 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in south to southwest swell across the Central America offshore waters and also over the offshore waters west of Colombia and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, mostly moderate east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to gentle speeds Thu night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico later this week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward during the next several days as it remains offshore of the coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta and the tropical wave and low pressure that is along 124W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the tropical wave near 124W continues to support moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas to 6 ft from about 09N to 22N between 120W and 140W. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough between 104W and 130W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere along with similar seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail between the monsoon and 20N and west of 120W through Sat. Tropical Storm Carlotta is forecast to continue on its current motion for the next day or so followed by a turn to the west by Fri as it continues to pull farther away from the southern tip of Baja California. It is forecast to intensify to hurricane status by Thu evening near 17.7N 112.5W with maximum sustained winds of 75 kt gusts to 90 kt. Carlotta is forecast to intensify further near 18.0N 118.9W by Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt and seas expected to peak to around 35 kt at that time. Carlotta is then forecast to slowly weaken afterward as it continues in a general westward motion. Swells generated by Carlotta will spread across the waters well away from it. Looking ahead, the wave/low currently along 124W is within environmental conditions that appear marginal for further development over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move slowly westward over the western portion of the basin. $$ Aguirre