000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Carlotta is centered near 16.2N 108.0W at 31/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 11N to 20N between 104W and 116W. Seas to 11 ft are expected within the area of strongest winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Three-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N to 18N with axis near 123W, moving west around 5-10 kt. A 1010 mb low is centered near 14N123W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 119W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 14N104W, then resumes from 14N111W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection related to the Special Feature and the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 13N and E of 109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the recently upgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta. Tropical Storm Carlotta is supporting moderate to strong E to SE winds from Guerrero to Colima offshore waters. Moderate seas to 7 ft prevail over these regions. In Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh gap winds and seas to 6 ft extends to 14N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in S swell across the SW Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, winds are light and seas slight. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Carlotta will move to 16.8N 109.8W Thu morning, 17.3N 111.8W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.7N 113.9W Fri morning, 17.8N 116.0W Fri afternoon, 17.8N 118.2W Sat morning, and 17.8N 120.2W Sat afternoon. Carlotta will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.3N 122.2W Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico later this week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. Elsewhere, winds will remain gentle to moderate with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S swell across the Central America offshore waters, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of Central America and Southern Mexico later this week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Carlotta and the tropical wave analyzed along 123W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the tropical wave near 123W continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas to 6 ft from 14N to 22N between 120W and 140W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are also ongoing S of the monsoon trough between 104W and 130W along with moderate seas to 7 ft. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail between the monsoon and 20N W of 120W through Sat. T.S. Carlotta will move to 16.8N 109.8W Thu morning, 17.3N 111.8W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.7N 113.9W Fri morning, 17.8N 116.0W Fri afternoon, 17.8N 118.2W Sat morning, and 17.8N 120.2W Sat afternoon. Carlotta will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.3N 122.2W Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, the wave/low currently along 123W could experience some gradual development, but conditions appear to be only marginally favorable for some gradual development of this system over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10 kt, remaining over the western portion of the basin. $$ ERA