000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Three-E has developed, centered near 15.1N 107.2W at 31/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 13N-18N between 104W-110W. Seas to 9 ft are expected withing the area of strongest winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Three-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N to 18N with axis near 123W, moving west around 5-10 kt. A 1010 mb low is centered near 14N123W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 115W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N115W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to the Special Feature and the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 11N and E of 106W. Similar activity prevails from 09N to 12N between 125W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the recently upgraded T.D. Three-E. T.D. Three-E is supporting moderate to strong E to SE winds from Guerrero to Colima offshore waters. Moderate seas to 7 ft prevail over these regions. In Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh gap winds and seas to 6 ft extends to 14N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in S swell across the SW Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, winds are light and seas slight. For the forecast, T.D. Three-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.7N 108.9W this evening, move to 16.3N 110.9W Thu morning, 16.7N 112.9W Thu evening, 17.0N 115.0W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 117.1W Fri evening, and 17.1N 119.0W Sat morning. Three-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.0N 121.5W early Sun. Moderate to fresh gap winds will continue in Tehuantepec through Sat night. Another area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. Elsewhere, winds will remain gentle to moderate with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S swell across the Central America offshore waters, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on T.D. Three-E and the tropical wave analyzed along 123W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the tropical wave near 123W continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas to 6 ft from 14N to 22N between 120W and 140W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are also ongoing S of the monsoon trough between 104W and 130W along with moderate seas to 7 ft. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail between the monsoon and 20N W of 120W through Sat. T.D. Three-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.7N 108.9W this evening, move to 16.3N 110.9W Thu morning, 16.7N 112.9W Thu evening, 17.0N 115.0W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 117.1W Fri evening, and 17.1N 119.0W Sat morning. Three-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.0N 121.5W early Sun. Looking ahead, the wave/low currently along 123W could experience some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10 kt, remaining over the western portion of the basin. Another area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. $$ ERA