000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The 1008 mb low centered near 14N106W is also associated with a tropical wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection in rain bands are from 13N to 20N between 101W and 110W. Environmental conditions are conducive further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form today. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance for tropical development in 48 hours and 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 08N to 19N with axis near 122W, moving west around 5-10 kt. A 1010 mb low is centered near 13N122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 119W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N96W to 14N106W to 12N130W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection related to the Special Feature and the tropical wave described above, numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 03N E of 81W and from 04N to 10N between 83W and 92W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 92W and 105W, and from 07N to 16N between 111W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 129W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on EP94. The area of low pressure in the Special Features is supporting moderate to strong E to SE winds from Guerrero to Colima offshore waters. Moderate seas to 7 ft prevail over these regions. In Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh gap winds and seas to 6 ft extends to 14N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in S swell across the SW Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, winds are light and seas slight. For the forecast, environmental conditions are conducive for further development of an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and a tropical depression is expected to form today. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to near gale force winds and moderate to rough seas will continue to affect the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters through late Thu and the outer offshore waters of Baja California Sur Thu through Fri night. Moderate to fresh gap winds will continue in Tehuantepec through Sat night. Another area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward, remaining offshore. Elsewhere, winds will remain gentle to moderate with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S swell across the Central America offshore waters, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on the Special Feature system and the tropical wave analyzed along 122W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the tropical wave near 122W continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas to 6 ft from 14N to 22N between 120W and 140W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are also ongoing S of the monsoon trough between 104W and 130W along with moderate seas to 7 ft. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail between the monsoon and 20N W of 120W through Sat. The system in the Special Features Section will start moving away of the Mexican offshore waters late Wed and start crossing 120W and entering the subtropical waters Sat night into Sun. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas to 14 ft are forecast to affect the immediate open waters W of the Baja California Peninsula from Thu through the end of the forecast period. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. Another area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has not become any better organized during the past several hours. Additional development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the end of this week. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10 kt, remaining over the western portion of the basin. $$ Ramos