000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong convection in spiral rainbands are ongoing from 07N to 20N between 96W and 117W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next day or so. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance for tropical development in 48 hours and 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave remains near 122W from 08N to 20N, moving west around 5-10 kt. A 1010 mb low is centered near 13N122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 118W and 126W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to the Special Feature and the tropical wave described above, numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 12N E of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on EP94. The area of low pressure in the Special Features is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore waters. Moderate seas prevail over this region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in SW swell across the SW Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, seas are slight. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of the low pressure south of southern Mexico, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next day or so. The system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas will continue to affect the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters through late Thu and the outer offshore waters of Baja California Sur Thu through Fri night. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward remaining offshore. Elsewhere, winds will remain gentle to moderate with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft in SW swell from offshore Colombia and Panama to Costa Rica as well as in the El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the sections above for details on the Special Feature system and the tropical wave analyzed along 125W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge, trough along 120W, and the tropical wave near 125W continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas to 7 ft from 13N to 20N between 120W and 137W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are also ongoing S of the monsoon trough between 101W and 134W along with moderate seas to 8 ft. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail from 12N to 23N and W of 120W through Sat while seas to 8 ft as high pressure N of the area strengthens. The system in the Special Features Section will move away of the Mexican offshore waters Sat and start crossing 120W and entering the subtropical waters Sat night into Sun. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas to 13 ft are forecast to affect the immediate open waters W of the Baja California Peninsula from Thu morning through the end of the forecast period. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, remaining offshore. Another area of low pressure has developed well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and recent shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the system is showing some signs of organization. Some additional development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the end of this week. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10 kt, remaining over the western portion of the basin. $$ Ramos