000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300403
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An area of low pressure located south of the southern coast of 
Mexico near 12N99W, which is associated with a tropical wave 
continues to become better organized based on satellite imagery.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 08N between 91W
and 106W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to
move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the 
next several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of 
Mexico. This system has a high chance for tropical formation in 
48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 124W from 07N to 18N, moving west around
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 
18N between 116W and 126W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N97W to 13N117W to
13N130W to 10N140W. Aside from the the convection related to the
Special Feature and the tropical wave described above, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 106W and 
116W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
tropical wave/low along 99W.

The area of low pressure in the Special Features is supporting
moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the Oaxaca and Guerrero
offshore waters where also scattered heavy showers, tstms and
lightning are ongoing. Seas over these regions are moderate to 6
ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate
in NW swell off the Baja California Peninsula, and in SW swell 
across the SW Mexican offshores. In the Gulf of California, seas
are slight. 

For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development of the low pressure south of southern 
Mexico, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the 
next couple of days. The system is forecast to move westward to 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, 
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas
will continue to affect the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters
through late Thu and the outer offshore waters of Baja California
Sur Thu night through Fri night. A second area of low pressure 
is forecast to form offshore of the coast of Central America and 
southern Mexico later this week. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form towards the end of the week or this 
weekend. Elsewhere, winds will remain gentle to moderate with
moderate seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region
with seas to 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas 
are 3-5 ft in SW swell from offshore Colombia and Panama to 
Costa Rica, and 5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse
in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of 
the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an
area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast 
of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of 
the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several 
days, remaining offshore.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Special Feature
system and the tropical wave/low analyzed along 123W. 

The pressure gradient between the suptropical ridge and the
tropical wave near 123W continues to support moderate to fresh NE
winds and moderate seas to 7 ft from 13N to 24N W of 120W.
Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are also ongoing S of the monsoon
trough between 105W and 132W along with moderate seas. Winds are
light to moderate elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of
around 8 ft will persist across the central waters south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ through the week. Winds may freshen north of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ toward the end of the week also building
seas to around 8 ft. Looking ahead, the low/tropical wave along 
123W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the middle
and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 10 kt across the western portion of the 
basin.

$$
Ramos