000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292127
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south 
of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce scattered 
showers and thunderstorms from 09N to 15N between 94W and 103W. 
This system is analyzed as a tropical wave along 98W and N of 
08N, with low pres centered near 12N98W, 1011 mb. Recent 
scatterometer wind data depict that the circulation has become 
better defined today. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next few days. The wave/low are 
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt 
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern 
coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance for tropical 
formation in 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 123W from 07N to 18N, moving west around
10 to 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pres is analyzed near 11N123W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 
121W and 125W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N140W. Aside from the 
the convection related to the Special Feature and the tropical 
wave described above, scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 15N between 100W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
tropical wave/low along 98W.

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of 
Mexico, except for the area near Guerrero where scattered 
showers and thunderstorms associated with the Special Feature
wave/low tropical wave may induce gusty winds and rough seas. 
Seas off the Baja California are 4-6 ft in NW swell. Seas are 4-5
ft in SW swell over the SW Mexican offshore waters, except in 
the area mentioned above. In the Gulf of California, winds are 
light to gentle and seas are slight. 

For the forecast, outside of the Special Feature wave/low, moderate
to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally 
strong at times, through the week. Winds will be mainly moderate 
or weaker elsewhere, fresh at times offshore Baja California 
Norte. Little change in seas is expected. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region
with seas to 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas 
are 3-5 ft in SW swell from offshore Colombia and Panama to 
Costa Rica, and 5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse
in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of 
the forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, 
an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the 
coast of Central America and southern Mexico later this week. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the
end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next 
several days, remaining offshore.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the sections above for details on the Special Feature
system and the tropical wave/low analyzed along 123W. 

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas up to 8 ft are south of
the monsoon trough between 105W and 135W. Moderate northeast 
winds are in the vicinity of a surface trough, analyzed from 11N
to 18N and along 130W. Winds are light to moderate elsewhere, 
along with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of
around 8 ft will persist across the central waters south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ through the week. Winds may freshen north of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ toward the end of the week also building
seas to around 8 ft. Looking ahead, the low/tropical wave along 
123W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the middle
and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to west- 
northwestward at about 10 kt across the western portion of the 
basin. 

$$
ERA