000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291522
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 99W and N of 05N, moving west at around 
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 17N 
between 94W and 103W. 

A tropical wave is near 122W from 02N to 18N, moving west around
10 to 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pres is analyzed near 11N122W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 17N between
119W and 127W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N124W. The ITCZ 
extends from 11N124W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection
related to the Tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 107W and 117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of 
Mexico, except for the area near Guerrero where scattered 
showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave may
induce gusty winds and rough seas. Seas off the Baja California 
are 4-6 ft in NW swell. Seas are 4-5 ft in SW swell over the SW 
Mexican offshore waters, except in the area mentioned above. In 
the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle and seas are 
slight. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally strong at times, through the week. 
Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, fresh at times
offshore Baja California Norte. Little change in seas is 
expected. Meanwhile, the area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave along 99W could 
experiment gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is 
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt 
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern 
coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, increasing winds and 
building seas are likely for the offshore waters of Oaxaca and 
Guerrero through mid-week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region
with seas to 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas 
are 3-5 ft in SW swell from offshore Colombia and Panama to 
Costa Rica, and 5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the 
forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of Central 
America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week. Some 
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while 
it moves generally westward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the low/tropical wave
analyzed along 122W. 

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas up to 8 ft are south of
the monsoon trough between 100W and 130W. Northeast winds of the
same speed are in the vicinity of the remnant trough of Bud, 
from 15N to 20N between 120W and 135W. Winds are moderate or 
weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of
around 8 ft will persist across the central waters south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ through the week. Winds may freshen north of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ toward the end of the week also building
seas to around 8 ft.

Looking ahead, the low/tropical wave along 122W could experience
gradual development during the middle and latter parts of the 
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 
kt across the western portion of the basin. An area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred 
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a 
tropical wave currently along 99W. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of 
the week. The system is forecast to move westward to west- 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several days, 
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. 

$$
ERA