000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290948
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 97W moving across southern Mexico west of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec southward to 02N, moving west at around 
10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough 
section below.

A tropical wave is near 120W from 02N to 19N, moving west around
15 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N105W to 12N116W to
10N140W. The ITCZ extends beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is N of 14N between 93W and 97W, and from
10N to 17N between 97W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is from 08N to 11N between 92W and 95W, from
08N to 13N between 103W and 115W, and from 06N to 17N between
119W and 125W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of 
Mexico, except from Guerrero to Chiapas where heavy showers and
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave may be supporting
gusty winds and rough seas. Seas off the Baja California are 4-6
ft in NW swell. Seas are 4-5 ft in SW swell over the SW Mexican 
offshore waters, except in the area mentioned above. In the Gulf
of California, winds are light to gentle and seas are slight. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally strong at times, through the week. 
Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, fresh at times
offshore Baja California Norte. Little change in seas is 
expected. Meanwhile, the area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southern 
coast of Mexico associated with the tropical wave has potential 
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the middle part of the week. The system is forecast 
to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the
next several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of 
Mexico. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building
seas are likely for the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Guerrero 
today through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Papagayo region
with seas to 6 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas 
are 3-5 ft in SW swell from offshore Colombia and Panama to 
Costa Rica, and 5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the 
forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of Central 
America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week. Some 
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while 
it moves generally westward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas around 8 ft are south of
the monsoon trough between 105W and 130W. Northeast winds of the
same speed are in the vicinity of the remnant trough of Bud, 
from 15N to 20N between 120W and 135W. Winds are moderate or 
weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of
around 8 ft will persist across the central waters south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ through the week. Winds may freshen north of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ toward the end of the week also building
seas to around 8 ft.

Looking ahead, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of 
Mexico associated with a tropical wave has potential for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the middle part of the week. The system is forecast to move 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next 
several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of 
Mexico. Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula producing some 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms may gradually develop during
the middle and latter parts of the week while it moves westward 
to west-northwestward at about 10 kt across the western portion 
of the basin.

$$
Ramos