000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282036
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 95W moving across southern Mexico near
the Gulf of Tehuantepec southward to 04N, moving west at around
10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

A tropical wave is near 118W from 05N to 19N, moving west around
20 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

A tropical wave that was near 139.5W has shifted west of 140W
into the Central Pacific basin.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 11N100W to 14N113W to
08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 92W and
108W, and within 180 nm northwest and north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ between 111W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of 
Mexico including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft 
mainly in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally strong at times, through the week. 
Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, fresh at times
offshore Baja California Norte. Little change in seas is 
expected. Meanwhile, a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms located a few hundred nautical miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the middle part of the week. The system is forecast to 
move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the 
next several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of 
Mexico. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building 
seas are possible for the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Guerrero
Mon through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are offshore Guatemala near an area of
showers and thunderstorms associated with a departing tropical 
wave. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft 
from offshore Colombia and Panama to Costa Rica, and 5-7 ft 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the 
forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an
area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week. Some 
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while 
it moves generally westward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas around 8 ft are south of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 110W and 130W. Winds are moderate
or weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 5-7 ft, locally 8 ft near
05N140W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of
around 8 ft will persist across the central waters south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ through the week. Winds may freshen north of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ toward the end of the week also building
seas to around 8 ft.

Looking ahead, a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms located a few hundred nautical miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the middle part of the week. The system is forecast to 
move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the 
next several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of 
Mexico. Another area of low pressure could form by the middle of
the week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is 
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward across the western portion 
of the basin.

$$
Lewitsky