265 
AXPZ20 KNHC 281446
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1410 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 94W moving across southern Mexico near
the Gulf of Tehuantepec southward to 04N, moving west at around
20 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

A tropical wave is near 115W from 05N to 20N, nearly stationary. 
Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

A tropical wave is near 139.5W from 05N to 20N, moving west at
around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N83W to 11N88W to 10N96W to
12N115W. The ITCZ extends from 08N118W to 10N138.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 88W and
101W, from 12N to 16N between 103W and 106W, from 12N to 16N
between 110W and 118W, and from 07N to 12N between 118W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters
of Mexico including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft
mainly in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally strong at times, through the week. 
Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, fresh at times
offshore Baja California Norte. Little change in seas is 
expected.

Looking ahead, a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of Guatemala and 
the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the 
middle part of the week. The system is forecast to move westward 
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next several 
days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. 
Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas are forecast for the offshore waters of Oaxaca and 
Guerrero Mon through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are offshore Guatemala near an area of
showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave. Winds
are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft from offshore
Colombia and Panama to Costa Rica, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas will persist through the end of the 
forecast period with little change in seas. Looking ahead, an
area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week. Some 
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while 
it moves generally westward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of 08M and west of
105W, locally strong in the SW waters in the wake of a departing
tropical wave. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the
open waters. Seas are 6-9 ft mainly in mixed southerly swell
across the waters south of 10N and west of 100W. Seas are 5-7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, marine conditions over the west-central and SW
waters will improve today as a tropical wave departs into the 
Central Pacific basin. Fairly tranquil marine conditions should 
prevail across most of the open waters through the early part of
the week. Fresh winds south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough in the
central waters will support seas of around 8 ft. Winds may also
freshen north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough by mid-week, shifting
west through the end of the week which would support seas to
around 8 ft also.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form by the middle 
of the week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is 
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward across the western portion 
of the basin.

$$
Lewitsky