000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271951
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 89.5W moving across the Yucatan
Peninsula, eastern Guatemala and western El Salvador southward to
04N, moving very quickly west at 20-25 kt. Nearby convection is 
described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

A tropical wave is near 116W from 06N to 20N, moving west at 
15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

A tropical wave is near 136.5W from 04N to 20N, moving west at 
10-15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N115W. The ITCZ 
extends from 08N117W to 14.5N135W, then resumes from 15N137W to
beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 05N to 09N between 77W and 85W, from 06N to 16N 
between 86W and 103W, from 10N to 16N between 113W and 117W, and 
from 12N to 14N between 136.5W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters of Mexico
as seen by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are in the 4-6 
ft range in mainly S to SW swell across the open waters, and 2-4 
ft range in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally strong at times, through the next 
several days. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, 
fresh at times offshore Baja California Norte. Little change in 
seas is expected into next week. Looking ahead, an area of low 
pressure is forecast to form by the middle of next week a few 
hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the 
middle or latter part of next week. This system is forecast to 
move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are across the offshore waters 
from Panama west-northwestward to downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds are offshore Nicaragua. Winds 
are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range 
across the offshore waters, mainly in S to SW swell, highest west
of 87W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through the middle of next week, locally strong Sun
night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure, the remnants of Bud, are located near 19N12.53W at
1011 mb. Nearby winds are 20 kt or less while some remnant seas
of around 7 ft are subsiding. Moderate to fresh trades are north
of the ITCZ to 20N and west of a tropical wave near 135W, with
fresh to locally strong E to SE winds south of the ITCZ and west
of 130W. Seas are 6-9 ft near this area from the Equator to 20N
and west of 118W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with
seas in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Bud will dissipate to a
trough later tonight while associated remnant seas continue to 
subside. Marine conditions over the west-central and SW waters 
near a tropical wave at 136.5W will improve by Sun as the wave 
departs into the Central Pacific basin. Fairly tranquil marine 
conditions should prevail across most of the open waters into 
early next week, with winds freshening south of the monsoon 
trough building seas slightly to 8 ft in the central waters Mon 
through Thu. Winds may also freshen north of the ITCZ in the
west-central waters toward the end of next week. Looking ahead,
an area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week 
well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible 
during the middle and latter parts of next week while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the western portion of the 
basin.

$$
Lewitsky