000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251151 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1151 UTC Thu Jul 25 2024

Updated Special Features section for Bud Special Advisory

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated

Tropical Storm Bud is centered near 18.0N 115.0W at 25/1130 UTC, 
moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with 
gusts to 65 kt. Seas are peaking to near 18 ft. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm west 
semicircle of the low. The system is forecast to gradually 
weaken, becoming a remnant low Fri afternoon near 18.1N 118.9W.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Bud
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W north of 05N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W from 07N to 16N, moving
W at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 16N110W. It resumes 
from 15N118W to 10N132W. The ITCZ continues from 10N132W to 
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N 
between 84W and 111W, and from 11N to 15N between 120W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features for information on Tropical Storm 
Bud.

Aside from Bud, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 2-4
ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, aside from TS Bud, gentle to moderate breezes 
and slight to moderate seas will persist. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in S swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist through the remainder of the week into the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features for information on Tropical Storm 
Bud.

Aside from Bud, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft 
prevail across much of the area. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bud will move to 18.1N 115.8W 
this afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 18.2N 117.5W
Fri morning, become a remnant low and move to 18.1N 118.9W Fri 
afternoon, 17.7N 120.1W Sat morning, 17.2N 121.0W Sat afternoon, 
and dissipate Sun morning. Along and S of the monsoon trough, SW
wind waves combined with this long-period southerly swell will 
support seas of 8 to 9 ft. Northerly swell over the northwest 
waters, with seas greater than 8 ft, will subside today.

$$
AL