000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Former Invest EP93 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bud, which is
centered near 17.1N 112.2W at 24/2100 UTC. Bud is moving west-northwest
at 14 kt and its estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 18N 
between 111W and 115W. In terms of the forecast track, a turn to
the west is expected tonight or early Thursday while a slower 
motion toward the southwest is expected by Friday. Little change
in strength is forecast through Thursday, with steady weakening 
expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate
by the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Bud 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W north of 05N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 15N 
between 90W and 110W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W from 07N to 16N, moving
W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 
16N between 120W and 126W. Development of this system appears 
unlikely over the next several days while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the central and western
portions of the basin. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N108W. The ITCZ 
begins W of TS Bud near 11N125W and continues beyond 08N140W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves 
above, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 06N to 10N between 82W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection
is elsewhere from 11N to 15N between 114W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to near gale force winds and moderate to rough seas are 
ongoing across the outer offshore waters of the southern tip of 
Baja California Sur due to the proximity of the recently formed 
Tropical Storm Bud. Scattered showers and tstms are also
happening over this region. Over the remainder Baja Peninsula
offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW and
seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate SE winds are
elsewhere both in the Gulf of California and the SW Mexican
offshore waters. Seas over the SW Mexican offshore zones are 5-7
ft in southerly swell while seas in the Gulf of California are
1-3 ft.  

For the forecast, tropical storm force winds and rough seas associated
with Bud will affect the outer offshore waters of the southern tip of 
Baja California Sur tonight. Then, Tropical Storm Bud will move 
to 17.6N 113.9W Thu morning, 17.8N 115.8W Thu afternoon, weaken 
to a tropical depression near 17.7N 117.5W Fri morning, become a 
remnant low and move to 17.3N 118.7W Fri afternoon, 16.6N 119.4W 
Sat morning, and dissipate Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist, except
for pulsing fresh winds in Tehuantepec through Fri and in the
Gulf of California Fri through Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough and across
the Central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds
are south of the monsoon trough over the offshore zones between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range
in S swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist through the remainder of the week into the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features for information on Tropical Storm Bud.   

Tropical Storm Bud is near 17.1N 112.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is
moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007
mb. Aside from Bud, surface ridging dominates the waters N of 16N
and W of 110W, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds N of
the ITCZ as well as moderate seas to 7 ft, except N of 27N and W
of 128W where residual NE swell support 8-9 ft seas. South of 
the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5
to 8 ft in southerly swell dominate.

For the forecast, Bud will move to 17.6N 113.9W Thu morning, 
17.8N 115.8W Thu afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 
17.7N 117.5W Fri morning, become a remnant low and move to 17.3N 
118.7W Fri afternoon, 16.6N 119.4W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat
afternoon. Seas to 8 ft in S long-period swell will gradually 
decay into late week. Along and S of the monsoon trough, SW winds
combined with this long-period southerly swell will combine to 
support seas of 8 to 9 ft. Northerly swell over the waters north 
of 28N, with seas greater than 8 ft, will continue through Thu.

$$
Ramos