000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222159
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W north of 05N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the 
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W north of 05N, moving W 
of 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 13N to 
17N between 101W and 105W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W from 04N to 16N, moving
west at 10 kt. No significant convection is active near this
tropical wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure 
near 13N103W, then to another 1010 mb low pressure near 11N120W 
to 11N125W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection 06N to 12N east of 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 240 nm of a
1010 mb low pressure area centered near 13N103W. This pattern is
likely supporting 15 to 20 kt winds off Michoacan and Guerrero 
this afternoon, beyond 90 nm from the coast. Seas in this area
are building to 5 to 7 ft. Farther north, NW swell to 8 ft is
impacting the waters west of Guadalupe Island is starting to
subside. This swell is associated with stronger winds farther 
north off Southern California between high pressure west of the 
area and relatively low pressure over the Colorado River Valley. 
The winds are diminishing as the low pressure weakens, allowing 
the swell to subside. Elsewhere, broad high pressure across the 
waters north of 20N is supporting mostly gentle to moderate 
breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas. 

For the forecast, swell west of Guadalupe Island will subside
below 8 ft tonight. Farther south, expect moderate to fresh 
winds off southern Mexico into mid week, then diminish 
thereafter as the low pressure in the area weakens. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will 
persist.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are over and downwind the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except 7-9 ft near
the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, southerly swell to 8 ft near the Galapagos 
will move into the far offshore waters of western Panama by late 
Tue, then subside across the region through mid week. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate combined seas will persist.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a broad ridge north of the area 
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting 
moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft in mixed swell north of the 
monsoon trough west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon 
trough, moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in S long- period swell will 
linger around the equator through most of the week, with this 
swell bringing rough seas south of 05N into mid week. Northerly 
swell over the waters north of 28N, with seas greater than 8 ft,
will continue through at least the middle of the week. SW winds 
will increase slightly into the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N 
between 95W and 110W through Tue, leading to rough seas. 

$$
Christensen