000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W north of 05N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted north of 04N between 77W and 83W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W north of 05N, moving W 
of 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N
to 16N between 95W and 101W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 04N to 16N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N130W to 09N135W. 
The ITCZ continues from 10N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 87W and 
90W, from 08N to 12N between 98W and 105W, and from 08N to 12N
between 112W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate E winds follow a tropical wave off western Oaxaca.
Elsewhere, mostly gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, with
lower wave heights across the Gulf of California. The exception
may be moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 7 ft west of
Guadalupe Island. This is related to higher pressure building
northwest of the area, and lowering pressure over the lower
Colorado River basin. Earlier ship observations and a
scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong NW winds west
of the Catalina Islands off southern California. Meanwhile,
divergent flow aloft associated with an upper low centered near 
22N119W was supporting a few rare showers and thunderstorms in
the far offshore waters about 120 nm off Punta Eugenia, but this
activity has diminished. 

For the forecast, the pattern will support fresh NW winds and 
building seas with NW swell off Baja California Norte today. 
Winds and seas will diminish across the Mexican offshore waters 
through mid week as the high pressure weakens.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downwind the Gulf 
of Papagayo, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are between the 
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, with light to gentle winds 
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft 
range, except 7-8 ft near the Galapagos Islands. Clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms are ac

For the forecast, southerly swell to 8 ft near the Galapagos 
will move into the far offshore waters of western Panama by late 
Tue, then subside across the region through mid week. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate combined seas will persist.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An altimeter satellite pass from 10 UTC sampled the wave heights
north of a trough near 139W, and showed seas to 8 ft on the
northern end of the trough. These seas are subsiding, however,
and have likely shifted west of the discussion area by now. 

Farther south, a 1010 mb low pressure has developed along the
monsoon trough near 09N137W, moving west at 10 kt. Earlier
scatterometer satellite data showed moderate to fresh winds on
the north side of the low pressure, but a concurrent altimeter
satellite pass indicated 5 to 6 ft seas. 

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between a broad ridge north of 
the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and 
within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds and seas 
of 5-7 ft in mixed swell north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough west 
of 125W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh 
winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in S long- period swell will 
linger around the equator through most of the week, with this 
swell bringing rough seas south of 05N into early this week. 
Northerly swell will move into the northern waters north of 28N 
tonight, with seas greater than 8 ft continuing through at least 
the middle of the week. From tonight through Tue, SW winds will 
increase slightly into the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N 
between 95W and 110W, leading to rough seas. 

$$
Christensen