000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190209
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W from 17N southward, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. nearby convection is described below in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 08.5N120W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08.5N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 80W 
and 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends west of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting gentle to
moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. 
Seas of 4-5 ft prevail over the open waters off Mexico and 1-2 ft
over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, broad high pressure across the region will 
support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
through late Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into Sat associated with a passing 
tropical wave. By Sat night into Sun, high pressure will build 
west of the area along with a slightly deeper low pressure over 
the lower Colorado River. This pattern will support brief fresh 
to strong southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California,
and fresh NW winds and building seas off Baja California Norte. 
Winds and seas will diminish off Baja California and the Gulf of 
California through the early part of next week as weak high 
pressure builds over the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate E winds are occurring in the waters off the 
coast of Nicaragua and El Salvador. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle winds are S of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range.  

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 
moderate seas will prevail across the Central and South America 
offshore waters through Fri. Winds will freshen Sat through Sun 
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters before 
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds on Mon. Otherwise, 
southerly swell will bring rough seas to the Galapagos Islands 
and Ecuador offshore waters Sun into Tue. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Invest EP92 is located near 17.5N18.5W with a central pressure 
of 1009 mb and continues to produce disorganized showers confined
to within 120 nm in the NE quadrant of the low. Fresh to locally
strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are in the vicinity of the low.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate winds are S of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Aside from the are of 8 ft seas near EP92, seas of 5-7 ft
prevail, locally to 8 ft near the equator. 

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in S long-period swell will 
linger around the equator through most of the week, with this
swell bringing rough seas south of 05N this weekend into early 
next week. Early next week, SW winds will increase into the
monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 95W and 110W, leading to
rough seas. Otherwise, environmental conditions over EP92 are 
not favorable for TC development, and the low pressure is 
expected to dissipate through Fri.

$$
AL