000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182157
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 102W from 05N to 16N, moving 
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is from 07N to 14N between 93W and 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N84W to 06N122W. The ITCZ extends from 11N134W to 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 06N to 14N
between 85W and 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A generally weak pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate NW
winds along the Baja California Peninsula, with locally moderate
to fresh winds off of Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer
satellite data depicts moderate to fresh SE winds off the coast 
of Guerrero, and moderate to fresh N winds in the water off of
Oaxaca. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexico 
offshore waters, including the Gulf of California. Seas across 
most of the Mexico offshore waters are 5 to 6 ft within mostly S 
to SW swell. In the Gulf of California seas are to 3 ft, except 
in the entrance of the Gulf where seas are to 4 ft due to SW 
swell.

Scattered thunderstorms are also impacting the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and the outer Oaxaca offshore waters. 

For the forecast, broad high pressure across the region will 
support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
through late Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into Sat associated with a passing 
tropical wave. By Sat night into Sun, high pressure will build 
west of the area along with a slightly deeper low pressure over 
the lower Colorado River. This pattern will support brief fresh 
to strong southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California,
and fresh NW winds and building seas off Baja California Norte. 
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish off Baja California 
and the Gulf of California through the early part of next week as
weak high pressure builds over the region. Farther south, an 
area of low pressure could form by late this weekend a few 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter, 
some slow development of this system is possible through the 
middle of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of development in 
the next 48 hours and 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate E winds are occurring in the waters off the 
coast of Nicaragua and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh S to SW 
winds and locally strong winds are noted from recent 
scatterometer satellite data in the waters off of Panama and 
Colombia, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell.

Scattered thunderstorms are also impacting the Gulf of Panama and
Gulf of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 
moderate seas will prevail across the Central and South America 
offshore waters through Fri. Winds will reach fresh speeds Sat
through Sun across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters before diminishing back to gentle to moderate speeds on 
Mon. Otherwise, southerly swell will bring rough seas to the 
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador offshore waters Sun into Tue. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Invest EP92 is located near 17N127W with a central pressure of 
1009 mb and continues to produce disorganized showers confined 
to within 120 nm in the NE quadrant of the low. A recent 
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong winds 
within 90 nm in the north semicircle of the center, and a
concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 8 feet. 
Moderate winds are elsewhere in the vicinity of the low.

Surface ridging associated with a 1021 mb high centered near 
33N132W extends across the subtropical east Pacific waters. This
is supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Gentle
to moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are elsewhere south
of the monsoon and ITCZ. 

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in S long-period swell will 
linger around the equator through most of the week, with this
swell bringing rough seas south of 05N this weekend into early 
next week. Early next week, SW winds will increase into the
monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 95W and 110W, leading to
rough seas. Otherwise, environmental conditions near EP92 are
becoming less favorable, and the low pressure is expected to
dissipate through through Fri.

$$
Christensen