000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170340 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 92W north of 07N to southern Mexico, moving W at 15 kt. Deep convection near this wave is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave has its axis along 104W from 03N to 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A tropical wave has its axis along 120W from 07N to 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 118W and 121W. A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 08N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 124W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N100W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 16N126W to 11N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 87W and from 07N to 12N between 89W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 102W and 116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW winds are likely prevailing off the Baja California coast and the SW Mexico coast. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate winds are quickly diminishing to light to gentle. Across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas across the Baja California offshore waters are mostly 5 to 6 ft due to mixed S and SW swell. In the Baja California Sur offshore waters, seas range 5 to 7 ft within S to SW swell. Over the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, seas are 4 to 6 ft generated by long- period SW swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are to 3 ft, except in the extreme southern Gulf of California, where higher seas of 3 to 5 ft exist due to long- period SW swell. For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become light and variable tonight. Seas in the Gulf will subside to 4 to 6 ft on Wed. Moderate SE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will persist through Wed night. Moderate winds will develop west of the Baja California peninsula tonight and continue through most of the week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible early next week while it moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are fresh to locally strong along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 07N, including across most of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 5 to 6 ft outside of Papagayo primary from long-period SW swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to SW swell are noted over the waters S of 05N, including between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the Central American offshore waters and over northern Panama. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia, reaching westward to near 82W and from 05N to 08N. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish Wed as they become southerly. These winds become moderate NE to E on Wed night. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through most of the week. These winds will also occur in the offshore waters of Nicaragua to Panama tonight through Fri night. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure covers the area north of about 20N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from north of the trough to near 25N and west of about 120W. Fresh winds are noted around a low pressure near 16N126W with a central pressure of 1008 mb. Seas are to 8 ft near this low. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds are N of 25N and W of 100W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas to 8 ft due to mixed long- period SW and NE swell are present from 10N to 15N and W of 135W. Long- period SW swell is creating seas 6 to 8 ft north of the equator to 08N and W of 93W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds north of the trough will increase by the weekend as the pressure gradient increases. Seas to 8 ft in mixed N and S long- period swell will linger around the equator through most of the week, with swell increasing by the end of the weekend. SW monsoonal winds will freshen east of about 102W beginning late Wed along with building seas to 8 ft. Meanwhile, a broad, elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While a tropical depression could still form during the next day or two, the window for further development is shortening with stronger upper level winds and cooler waters anticipated on Thursday. The system is forecast to move WNW at 10 to 15 kt across the western part of the basin. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. $$ AReinhart