000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162201 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024 Corrected Remainder of Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western East Pacific Invest EP92: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity is identified on satellite imagery as scattered showers and thunderstorms of moderate intensity from 14N to 17N between 125W and 126W. Other similar convection lifting north- northeastward is seen from 17N to 20N between 120W and 123W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft were noted in overnight altimeter satellite data from 13N to 17N between 122W and 126W. These seas are due to long-period south to southwest. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of days while the system moves west- northwestward across the western part of the basin. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 89W north of 08N to inland eastern Guatemala and over the eastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Deep convection near this wave is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave has its axis along 100W from 04N to 17N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 07N to 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 12N. A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 07N to 18N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 14N to 16N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward across central Panama to 08N82W to 09N95W to 10N112W to 16N119W to low pressure near 14N126W 1008 mb to 11N132W to low pressure near 12N140W 1011 mb. Numerous strong convection is seen within 180 nm south of the trough between 77W and 80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the trough between 97W and 101W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 85W and 89W, between 94W and 97W, between 110W and 112W and between 117W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 130W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to near 8 ft. The latest ASCAT pass shows light to gentle winds prevailing across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of California. Moderate winds are likely occurring around the southwest Mexico coast. Seas across the Baja California offshore waters are mostly 4 to 6 ft within mixed swell. In the Baja California Sur offshore waters, seas range 5 to 7 ft within mixed swell. Over the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, seas are also 4 to 6 ft outside of Tehuantepec within SW swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are to 3 ft. For the forecast, the fresh to strong to northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through this morning, diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds this afternoon and becoming light and variable tonight. Seas will continue to subside across the Gulf today. Moderate SE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will persist through Wed night. Moderate winds will develop west of the Baja California peninsula tonight and continue through most of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are fresh to strong with seas 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 05N, including across most of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 6 ft outside of Papagayo within mixed swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in S to W swell are occurring in waters S of 05N, including between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the Central American offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted off the coast of Colombia and into the nearby offshore waters, including portions of the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish this afternoon, then pulse to fresh tonight. Winds will then diminish to moderate through the remainder of the week. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through most of the week. These winds will expand across the offshore waters of Nicaragua to Panama by Wed through Fri night. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected See the Special Features section for information on Invest EP92. High pressure covers the area north of about 20N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from north of the trough to near 22N and west of about 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 23N to 31N and W of 110W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Outside the seas related to the Special Features system, seas to 8 ft due to mixed SW and NE swell are present from 10N to 15N and W of 120W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft north of the equator to 05N and W of 93W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N between 115W and 140W through most of the week. Seas of 8 ft in mixed N and S swell will spread north of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W through Wed, and diminish by Wed night. The swell over the waters west of 135W will diminish by this evening. $$ Aguirre