000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160335 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western East Pacific (EP92): Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed within a larger area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity centered several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could form around midweek while the system moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the western part of the basin. There is a medium chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a wave has an axis along 86W and extends off the coast of Nicaragua to near 08N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noticed with this wave at this time. The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W N of 08N to inland southeastern Mexico, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 117W N of 08N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 126W N of 07N, moving W around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N100W to 14N117W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 12N128W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 19N between 106W and 133W and from 05N to 09N between 95W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 84W and 88W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf of California. Seas across the Baja California offshore waters are mostly 4 to 6 ft within mostly NW swell. In the Baja California Sur offshore waters, seas range 5 to 7 ft within SW swell. Over the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, seas are also 4 to 6 ft outside of Tehuantepec within SW swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are to 3 ft. For the forecast, the fresh to strong to northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue into early Tue, then diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue afternoon and become light and variable Tue night. Seas will continue to subside across the Gulf through Tue. Moderate SE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will persist through Thu. Moderate winds will develop west of the Baja California peninsula Tue night and continue through most of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are moderate to fresh with seas 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 02N, including across most of the Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 6 ft outside of Papagayo within mixed swell. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft within S and SW swell are occurring between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Seas are near 8 ft off the SW coast of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast of El Salvador and Guatemala. Scattered thunderstorms are also moving off the coast of Colombia and into the nearby offshore waters, including portions of the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse tonight, then pulse to fresh Tue night in the Papagayo region. Winds will then diminish to moderate through the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through most of the week. These winds will expand across the offshore waters of Nicaragua to Colombia by Wed through Fri night. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for information on Invest EP92. High pressure covers the area north of about 20N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from north of the trough to near 22N and west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 21N to 31N and W of 110W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas to 8 ft in mixed SW and NE swell are noted from 10N to 15N and W of 125W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft north of the equator to 05N and W of 93W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of 10N between 115W and 140W. Seas of 8 ft in mixed N and S swell will spread north of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W through most of the week. The swell in waters W of 135W will diminish by Wed. $$ AReinhart